The countdown..., page-83

If Ice 1 was crucial on quite a few fronts, and the risks were spread, and one would have almost expected the new type play to fail in some regard with the Achilles heels, the fact that DW has gone cap in hand for another what, 40m to market, and with the hopes/expectations of investors that have thrown anywhere from a few thousand to several hundred thousand (if my interpretation of posts is correct) not to mention the larger US investors involved with the placement a while back, I'd say the weight of the world is on DWs shoulders atm.

After all we have here a guy that has given Tangiers investors a way to make some of their cash back, but in some cases with such a good new play, has probably brought just as many back with the same hopes that they had with Tangiers.

One can add the low oil price into the mix and the flow/decline rates become even more crucial for play margin and it's not looking like the oil price is going to rise past 60 any time soon with the Lower 48 making it plain they arnt going to let OPEC dictate the oil price anymore.

So how would one feel if I was in DWs snow boots ?

Probably just like He looks atm !!!

This is not to mention where DW goes from post Ice 2V if it doesn't come up to spec for at least a farmout to drill some horizontals.

I'm fully expecting, but hoping the opposite, that there will be an element of SH that feel hard done by, even tho the risk reward has been explained over and over and over again.

And yes then there's the chance of the conventional. But would DW be happy to take yet another ride on the coat tails of investors that he, apparently, had disappointed again post Tangiers if Ice 2 V doesn't come up to investor spec, not that he was in any way shape or form responsible for that duster.

DW may be looking down the barrel of not having a job soon if those inevitable disgruntled investors create enuf of a wave of discontent.

Imo the guy has done an excellent job with what he has had to work with apart from a couple of hiccups along the way, and I will fully support these guys no matter where they head post Ice 2V.

When I invest in such a company I invest in the whole package not just the play, idea or project, altho it makes a pretty big part of the initial investment decision process.

I have invested in some shockers in my time some of which have just been tragic short term moves and others have been having too much faith in management that were indeed misleading the market, stringing investors along if U like.

I can't see that these guys have done anything but been up front about all that has transpired to date,?and if anything they have underpromised but over delivered.

Perhaps this is what gives DW cause for concern given our minute dissection of all things anncd, as evidenced by the other 200' that Spiny picked up on. Its the nature of us beasties !!! No disrespect to all that have posted on this question.

I'm wondering if DW is worried that the assumption is being made that if we don't get exceptional numbers from this well then the market will crucify the sp and he will have nowhere to go but massive dilution to drill the conventional plays.

Imo it's important for investors to realise that lowish numbers are not the end of the world as regards getting the HRZ to work. I'm not going to go into why I think this is the case bar saying that PB(et al)found a way to make the EagleFord work when many were saying it couldn't and there have been many advances in the unconventional completion industry since PB proved up the EF as viable.

The JV has certainly stated they think there's a decent chance this play will perform very strongly given the Ice 1 numbers. But as any geo will tell U what a core tells U and what actually happens sub 10,000' can vary quite markedly.

I have been careful to consistently push the fact that this is geologically a NEW TYPE of play. This soil chemistry has not had Lower 48 frack techniques applied, nor has a new type of unconventional play had to run the gamut of low oil prices except very early in the unconventional industries history with the GFC.

There is a lot to be said for the positivity of a strong resource price when developing such projects, it helps immensely with investor confidence as regards margins as mentioned before.

So no, I'm not surprised if DW is not showing some visible signs of stress atm. He wouldn't be human if he didn't and it would have me worried if he wasn't.

There should always be that lingering doubt in the back of ones mind, be they investors or management, when it comes to such a high risk venture.

There is still much that requires a lot of investor faith for this play to work, even post a successful Ice 2V. It's not going to be easy in this oil price environment to convince the big guys to open their pockets big time and for us to simply walk away with our 100 to 200 bagger,'as many as some here might think it's a lay down misere.

Imo the chances are much higher that we will simply derisk the play further and we will have to prove up the potential economics of the play with a horizontal program via a farm out.

It's all been done before except not in this environment a la Aurora.

Take all this as u will.

I have no doubt there will be some that are disappointed that I'm not being ultra positive at this point in time. But, one must take on board all outcomes when it comes to such investments. Sometimes it results in an early exit, and theres no disgrace in that. Sometimes it results in more prolonged investor agony until better value is realised.

Whatever the case investors must first and foremost take this investment as their own decision making responsibility and have realised the risk/reward, and also taken into account the commodity price will have on their inveatment.

It's not hard stuff to deliberate on, however the ultimate decision with how U action that investment is the hard part.

So, I wouldn't take DWs current stress level as a guide to what's going on in the well atm. I'd be taking it as an indicator of all the effort that's gone into Icewine to date and as to how important this well is to the continued derisk of the play in this oil price environment.

d.