Pavlovas, you say “unless you understand how economics works you will have no idea.” So to start with, which school of economics are you coming from – the school of John Maynard Keynes or Ludwig Heinrich Edler von Mises?
“unless you understand how economics works you will have no idea.” Clearly then you must be from the Austrian school of von Mises, because the Keynesian school boys (and girls) in control of all global central banks, clearly have no-idea as their experiments continue to fester way out of control! – Unemployment dropping, debt figures spiraling out of control and beyond the limits of ‘normal’ payback.
“Go back and look at how PM crashed after the 1929 depression. “ I found this excerpt that helps to explain this era ………………. “During the last four years of the Roaring ‘20s, the DOW Stock index roared upward +143%. And during the same period Barron’s Gold Mining Index (BGMI) rose +83%. But then in October the Great Stock Market Crash OF 1929 began. During the following four bear market years (1929-1933), the DOW Index plummeted -88%. However, as frantic frightened investors fled the stock market, they sought safe haven by piling into the precious metal stocks. Consequently, in the four year bear market stock period (1929-1933) the BGMI soared + 380%...as the Wall Street Stocks were mercilessly hammered downward.” More info follows at this link… http://www.gold-eagle.com/article/great-crash-1929-similarities-suggest-gold-prices-will-soar-2014
“At best PM is a short term spec play. Not a long term hold.” – it’s up to every trader to suit his needs and associated trading plan. When trading short term in manipulated markets you are against HFT traders with a criminal mindset. If you learn to read them, you can make some money! If you are a longer term trader with a view to money preservation as fiat currencies crash and geopolitical situations change, you are accumulating & holding gold (bullion & stocks) in a bid to preserve your wealth against the loss in value of fiat currencies.
“USD has quite a few years left in it yet.” – I beg to differ. Japan may have been creating a massive pool of paper Yen and may well be heading toward hyperinflation. The BoJ now owns half of all privately owned companies from conjured Yen. Hardly healthy for an aging population that is sliding into self-extinction. I do not believe the USD has ‘years left in it’. In fact, as the global reserve currency, I think its days are numbered……………. and literally ‘days.’
In fact, I am suggesting that Oct 1st marks the day that ends the USD reserve currency status.
“The SDR is an international reserve asset, created by the IMF in 1969 to supplement its member countries’ official reserves. As of March 2016, 204.1 billion SDRs (equivalent to about $285 billion) had been created and allocated to members. SDRs can be exchanged for freely usable currencies. The value of the SDR is currently based on a basket of four major currencies: the U.S. dollar, euro, the Japanese yen, and pound sterling. The basket will be expanded to include the Chinese renminbi (RMB) as the fifth currency, effective October 1, 2016.” - https://www.imf.org/external/np/exr/facts/sdr.HTM
I am also tipping that gold will be included in the basket of currencies as a ‘safeguard’. The Central Bankers know their experiments have failed. Grouping all degraded fiat currencies into the one SDR basket makes no sense at all.
The only way the world can get out of this unbelievable mess, is with the repricing of gold and silver due to an inclusion of gold in the SDR basket. It is entirely possible that come Oct 3rd this year, you will see futures and global trading exchanges closed for up to a week to let the dust settle.
The final result may well be a devalued USD by 50%, a gold price of $10,000+, Silver price of $100+ and a new reserve ‘basket’ currency – SDR.
We are currently in the eye of one of the most devastating social and financial cyclones that humanity has faced during its short existence. Most are totally oblivious to the dire outcome ahead.
SVL Price at posting:
22.5¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
(20min delay)