the dangers of only charting

Today is an example of why you need to use a combination of charting and fundamental analysis. Oil was pushed up by external factors and now that the hype is dying away so is the price of oil. Oil is in a downtrend and will remain so for a while yet.
Obama's big push is to get people employed by the end of 2010, can someone tell me what is going to get the economy going in the time between that? In short nothing. More jobs will be lost every month, putting more and more pressure on discretionary spending. The car industry will fall over in the coming months.
In short I can really see no reason to close the shorts at the moment. I have been wrong in the past and will be again. Hoping this time I have got it right though.

Happy hunting y'all

Anywhos, one more article for the road.

Commodities Tumble as Recession Erodes Grain, Energy Demand
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By Millie Munshi

Jan. 12 (Bloomberg) -- Commodity prices tumbled, led by grains and energy, as the slumping global economy continued to slash demand for raw materials.

The Reuters/Jefferies CRB Index of 19 prices slid as much as 4 percent. Corn, soybeans and wheat fell the most allowed by the Chicago Board of Trade, crude oil tumbled below $38 a barrel and gold slumped the most in six weeks.

In 2008, the CRB index plunged 36 percent, the most since the gauge debuted five decades ago, as the U.S., Europe and Japan entered recessions. Today, the U.S. Department of Agriculture projected bigger supplies of grain and oilseeds than estimated last month. Oil consumption will drop by 1 million barrels a day this year, Deutsche Bank AG said last week.

“The continued deflationary environment and economic slowdown is driving down potential demand for all the commodities,” said Michael Cuggino, who oversees about $3.5 billion as chief executive officer of Pacific Heights Asset Management in San Francisco. “The drop in commodities is a symptom of a very negative period for the global economy.”

The CRB index fell 9.03, or 3.9 percent, to 220.88 at 2:34 p.m. New York time. Only natural gas posted a gain. On Dec. 5, the gauge touched 208.58, the lowest since August 2002.

Crude-oil futures for February delivery dropped $3.118, or 7.8 percent, to $37.65 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Earlier, the price touched $37.48.

“With global economic activity on a freefall and unemployment rising, the outlook for energy commodities remains rather grim,” Francisco Blanch, the head of global commodities research at Merrill Lynch in London, said today in a note. “Energy markets will remain closely linked to real economic activity, and a near-term rebound in prices is unlikely.”

Corn, Soybeans Plunge

Corn futures for March delivery fell by the limit of 30 cents, or 7.3 percent, to $3.8075 a bushel on the CBOT.

Wheat futures for March delivery tumbled by the maximum of 60 cents, or 9.5 percent, to $5.695 a bushel.

Soybeans futures for March delivery plunged by the limit of 70 cents, or 6.8 percent, to $9.66 a bushel.

Global corn supplies may jump to 136 million metric tons in the year ending Sept. 30, the USDA said today. The projection was up 9.9 percent from a December forecast. U.S. soybean stockpiles before the next harvest will reach 6.1 million tons, up from 5.6 million projected a month ago, the USDA said. World wheat inventories may rise 0.7 percent.

“People are taking another look at commodities and seeing limited upside,” said Stephen Platt, a commodity analyst at Archer Financial Services Inc. in Chicago. “A lot is tied to the disappointing outlook for the domestic and world economy. The agriculture reports show stocks building, highlighting the lack of demand, and that helped drive everything else down.”