ALA 8.33% 13.0¢ arovella therapeutics limited

Its been 5 weeks or so since I wrote this post and a lot has...

  1. 3,958 Posts.
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    Its been 5 weeks or so since I wrote this post and a lot has changed:

    • We have had the entitlement issue at 2.5c
    • The register changing hands 2x in one day
    • Zolpimist TGA approval
    • Plenty of promotion of the company and interviews by the CEO
    • A quarterly that shows minimal cash burn

    So we were all thinking that Zolpi approval was coming out in May sometime and then they guided by the end of December. They changed manufacturers and many on here were rightfully annoyed with the delay. In the end it was just over 2 months since the announcement of the delay till when they got approval. So well done to management. It appears to be the right decision, executed well, and with minimal impact to the business (except placing it in a stronger position).

    I expect TGA approval will trigger action by our partners in other regions. SUDA is to manufacture and supply the product to our commercial partners so now that TGA approval of the product and the manufacturing has been granted I expect this to push things along here, both in terms of milestone payments but also progress towards registration in these other countries.

    Importantly it obviously allows the prospect of a deal for the Australian market. I would expect double digit royalties and I would also expect a meaningful upfront payment. Possibly the largest SUDA has ever received. Australia is obviously a first world market and with product approval it places the company in a strong negotiating position.

    Ultimately I feel that the commercialisation of Zolpimist will provide enough revenue to well and truly keep the lights on for the business. The hard work is done. The capital intensive aspect of the Zolpimist commercialisation is complete.

    This milestone certainly adds credibility to the Baker and Hopper team IMO. They made a decision to alter the submission and it has paid off.

    Biotechs need newsflow to keep the market interested and I feel that there are no shortage of positive items of news that can come from the company on any given day.

    We all know the Anagrelide pk study report is due and now we are on high alert for further developments regarding Zolpimist. In Michael Baker's boardroom radio interview today I thought it was interesting that he singled out 001 - our treatment for migraines. The company hasnt said much here lately so I find this noteworthy. And of course there is the development work we are doing for Cann, Zilera, Ordesa, and Sanofi.

    And in the background we have whatever else the company is working on regarding bringing in another oncology asset into the portfolio. We now have a market cap of $15m and $5m in the bank. We have upcoming milestones and are probably within 12 months of generating revenue.

    I feel like our SUDA, after many false starts, is now starting to warm up. The management team have a really strong base now for which to pursue growth of the business and a growing share price.
    Last week we had a taste of what attention on our company can bring and I anticipate that there will be many other similar days as the management team kick some goals.

    Placement done. Shortfall allocated. We are all ready to go now.

    Cheers
    Livas1
 
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