The Dawn of EV, page-1156

And the alternative view:
Shipping is an issue partly within E25's control and E25 is making changes to lower the cost.

Shipping cost will come down over the next year as its likely E25 will transition to larger again shipment sizes and quite likely longer-term contracts. Even without current prices reducing, a 110k dwt capacity ship can be hired at under US$40k/day (ref https://fearnpulse.com). This would work conveniently for one shipment a quarter and 90kt/qtr of production. Conservatively estimating a 50 day round trip, the cost is $2m. At a 100kt shipment this is a cost per ton of $20 (or $0.60/dmtu). Slightly more, but close to the $18/t E25 quote in its Q3 update as a long-term average.

But wait, it gets better
Pricing below $18/t may be achievable once E25 have reliably produced at Nameplate over several months. What if E25 were producing 250kt/qtr and were to contract for a year both a 60k dwt and 110k dwt mini-cape ship. Lets assume these ships could complete seven round trips during the year. At current rates the daily shipping cost would be around US$45k/day ($16.4m/yr). If loaded at 50kt and 100kt the seven round trips would have the capacity to shift 1,050kt - the planned capacity that would exist from the 3.9MT mining capacity upgrade. This indicates current market shipping costs per ton could be reduced to $16/t. The fearnley time series graph indicates a 75 dwt 1yr rental was $8k-$14k/day pre-covid. If shipping costs drop back to this, shipping could be down under $10/t.

High or low cost?
E25 produces ore at a low cost and this is unlikely to change. The ore is at the surface. The over-burden to remove is minimal hence an estimation that 18Mt of over-burden would need to be shifted for 50MT of ore. Explosives are not required. Capital expenditure is low. High-expense processing methods are not part of the flow-chart. No expensive to build or maintain transportation infrastructure is required - almost all transportation is on public roads. Transport costs from mine to port are higher than some other producers but are fully budgeted for within the cost structure of under $3/dmtu. The 3x DFS put these costs at $2.65/dmtu

In as little as six to nine months the forward looking equation could well be:
44% Mn @ US$5.60 less shipping $0.53 less grade discount $1.30? plus smelter credits +$0.44 (conservatively assuming 80% of DFS) less production costs $2.65 = US$1.56/dmtu profit. 1.03MT production * 1.56 * 33.1 = US$53.2m/yr pre-tax. There's quite a big margin of safety between this position and what some posters claim will be the situation. Is the grade discount $1.10, $1.30 or $1.50 - I don't know but on all these possibilities the equation above still produces strong profits.

In a few months, what is now being described as a pig now, could well be a tasty meal for shareholders to tuck into (sorry any vegetarians out there).