Hi Rocket,
Ok so lets look at this. I can't see anything that is materially different from what I've been saying. That said, I wouldn't put much weight on OMH based revenue figures as they are 100% internal transfer pricing based revenue figures. Internal transfer pricing can be wierd at the best of times. Quite frankly I don't care what OMH's cost structure was because it tells you nothing about the cost structure of a different operation.
So lets unpack OHM's revenue a bit furtherMy figures have the 2021 end of week average 44% Mn price being US$5.21/dmtu. OMH averaging A$4.22/dmtu in 2021 indicates US$3.17/dmtu (at 0.75). On-average there appears to be a US$2.04/dmtu adjustment for grade discounts and shipping costs.
The Baltic Dry index averaged around 3,000 during 2021. When about 3187, E25's noted the cost per ton was low $30's (lets say $32). Multiplying by (3000/3187) lowers the cost per ton OHM may have had to $30/t. OMH was only shipping 28.5% ore taking the potential shipping cost back up to to $1.05/dmtu. That means any grade discount is about US$1.00/dmtu despite only having a grade of 28.5%. A number of posters have put grade discount cash flow reconcilation attempts for E25 in the US$1.20-$1.40/dmtu range. Some have even used higher discounts (all excluding smelter credits).
So if smelter credits don't exist OMH has a smaller grade discount in their revenue figures despite a significantly lower grade that is barely above the 27.1% E25 achieves from simply washing off excess clay. That makes no sense. It does however make sense if significant smelter credits are real.
And back to E25 revenue estimates from the current shipment.
US$6.55 less $2 of grade/shipping = US$4.55/dmtu. 35,000*33*4.55/.74 = A$7.1m. A full year's revenue at this pricing would be over A$70m.
Also looking forward to post expansion, E25's has estimated costs/dmtu to fall to US$2.65. If 2021 were to repeat, this pricing scenario had OHM losing money but it would still have E25 making money as $3.17>$2.65. The margin would only be 14% but that's still a profit in a very difficult year.
(20min delay)