The Dawn of EV, page-1610

Yep. Released 31 March 2023.

This link is short reiterating key bits of the legislation. The content isn't a surprise but what may surprise some OEM's / battery makers is that the many submissions and suggestions for change or flexibility that I presume they made don't appear to have been successful. My interpretation is that the US Treasury decided that if they are going to potentially pay consumers something well in excess of $100 billion, they are going to get a fully US compliant supply chain out of that payment, in addition to any carbon reduction green economy benefits.

It would only take 13.3m eligible vehicles to eligible customers under the scheme before the cost is $100b. If in the later 2020's US consumers buy 5m eligible vehicles each year, the US treasury will be paying out $37.5b each year.

Treasury Releases Proposed Guidance on New Clean Vehicle Credit to Lower Costs for Consumers, Build U.S. Industrial Base, Strengthen Supply Chains | U.S. Department of the Treasury
https://home.treasury.gov/news/press-releases/jy1379

The position is confirmed as:

• Across 2024 the battery components can't be manufactured by a foreign entity of concern (China). During 2024 a US battery plant could source Lithium / HPMSM / Graphite / Cobalt etc from anywhere and it would still be a US manufactured battery
• From the beginning of 2025, critical minerals need a supply chain not involving a foreign entity of concern (China). Key words being "any critical minerals". Ambiguity has not been introduced.
• The USA has a 50 mineral, critical minerals list which has item 27. Manganese (Cobalt is #10, Graphite is #18, Lithium is #24)

Having taken the hard line, will OEM's will just give up on sourcing the $7,500/vehicle credit or build a supply line that works. This credit doesn't apply to the top-end over $80k vehicles (or over $55k for non-SUV's). At the price points for these vehicles you are going to be at a massive commercial disadvantage if you are non-compliant and a competitor (any competitor) is. All it will take is a statement from Elon that he intends to make compliant vehicles and everyone wanting to compete with Tesla will know they need to. Graphite will also be a problem but Telsa has already signed agreements to get some supply in that space. Graphite isn't a problem due to lack of known resources but because China dominates the synthetic graphite space and also the purification/shaping of natural graphite for use in batteries. This would appear to impact both NCM and LFP battery styles so OEM's can't just flip to LFP and avoid supply chain issues. They may choose LFP and just address graphite but I suspect they will continue NCM plans and also address HPMSM.