The last quarterly had the mine gate price at A$115/t on 62.3kt of volume. This implies mine gate costs of $7.2m/qtr. If mining costs were basically fixed and only elevated due to a lack of throughput then if volumes improve to 90kt then mine gate prices could fall to A$80/t ($7.2m/90kt). I know this is optimistic given what's been seen in the past but if most of the Q1 volume increase was in the last month it does remain a possibility that volumes are back to 1,000t+/day average (90kt/qtr), particularly if there's a good number of days at 1500t/day. The last two quarters have seen trucking/port costs at A$68/t and A$65/t so this cost is more predictable.
If E25 are approaching nameplate then the FoB cost could be approaching A$145/t. The AUD to USD exchange rate is favourable so costs to this point would be US$95.7/t or US$2.99/dmtu @ 32%. US$15-$16/t shipping adds about US$0.50/dmtu (at 32% grades). Discounts to 44% Mn pricing mean E25 won't be receiving US$4.77/dmtu but its still possible for small profits at these prices. If the smelter credits were to reemerge then that would make a big difference because the size of the grade discount to 44% pricing would reduce.
Given E25's production past, the market won't have any confidence in forecasts of volumes. It will take reporting actual higher volumes before the market believes it. It may even require two quarters to believe its repeatable. Its not however a certainty that E25 is losing money at these prices.
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