There is no exact answer to this question. NMC is a type of battery that has many different subvariants. Variants like NMC111 are being phased out because using one part nickel, manganese and cobalt has cost and supply issues regarding the amount of Cobalt used. Progressively more and more nickel is being added to NMC variants with both Manganese and Cobalt dropping. NMC532 is broadly 50% Nickel, 30% Manganese, 20%. The NMC622 is 20% manganese and the NMC811 is down to 10% manganese. I've seen some references to NMC9.5.5 which is pushing manganese down to 5%.
So this trend towards higher Manganese is negative for HPMSM demand The trend towards battery growth for EV's and stationary storage is positive for HPMSM demand The trend towards LFP is negative (LFP doesn't use Manganese). LFP changing to LMFP would be positive.
There's a bunch of positive and negative influence on demand which make robust forecasting basically impossible.
Most articles I've seen don't reference the manganese content for LMFP. I think there may be a wide range of manganese contents being experimented with. Elon Musk has talked about a one-third Manganese LMFP battery in the past. The 2nd article below notes that at a Manganese to ferrous ratio of 9:1 there is no duel voltage problem (but there would be the lattice distortion problem). A lot will depend on the technical solutions employed to address the incremental difficulties of adding manganese. My gut feeling is that LMFP will be a lot more manganese than the options they are likely to replace.
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