Some interesting developments are occurring that support a future strong demand hypothesis. Iron ore's bounced off its low this year of $100/t in May 2023 and is now up at $133/t. Copper is up at $3.86/pound which is above any period across 2012-2020 and a more modest near 10% bounce of earlier pricing this year. Presumably the Baltic Dry is up because a lot of demand exists to move dry product in bulk carriers. These factors point towards current / upcoming stronger industrial demand. If demand is strong that sets up the scenario for any build up of inventories to clear which is ultimately what needs to happen for stronger prices to return. The combination of high shipping costs and low prices is going to be impacting the upper end of the cost curve. What I'm not sure on is whether this will reduce production or whether producers will see enough recovering demand signals to trade through it.
Cycles turn and although the Manganese price hasn't yet, a turn may not be far away.
E25 Price at posting:
49.5¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
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