Well it looks like Manganese has just gone through US$8/dmtu to about $8.30/dmtu (probably within a few cents). As per OMH the 24 May price was $6.99/dmtu which is the 3rd week as the price leveled out at between +45% and +50% on the chart below.
At about +47.5% it means the base price on the graph is US$4.74. Remultiplying: US$4.74 * 175% = US$8.30/dmtu.
At these prices ore buyers are going to seriously consider options like doing a 1yr supply deal with E25 at say $7.50/dmtu. They know they are locking in a high price but they also know they have supply at under $8/dmtu and if it goes to $9/dmtu or worse they are sitting pretty. Given the cause of the high prices they can guess that issues causing high prices are not going to be resolved in the next few months and probably not for the rest of 2024 and early 2025.
If E25 were to do a 1yr supply deal at $7.50/dmtu they are locking in profits because even with E25's current inefficient cost base, they would be making money at that price. A locked in price at a volume E25 was confident it could deliver is the closest thing to a risk free profit that exists in mining.
(20min delay)