The market was previously and is currently segregated with NMC (Ternary) and LFP sectors being dominant. NMC is leading the higher density space but lags on cycle length and safety. LFP is leading lower cost, safety and cycle length but lags in density.
I'm not sure that there will be a unifying product that wins on all dimensions (Cost, cycle length, safety, cold-weather performance, charging speed, density, production by an "acceptable" country, voltage output, power output). What I'd expect to see is solid state chasing and winning the high-density market. Your mid-upper end EV's and other mobility solutions where weight-power ratios are critical (such as aviation, top end EV's). While price is always important, this market is about performance over price. Its akin to your new apple iphone product market. Some LMR/NMC/LMFP may break into this group but NMC will be the big loser to solid state.
A second sub-market may develop which is more price conscious but not completely so and one or two attributes of batteries will be critical, but not strength in all attributes. This will be a big fighting zone for NMC's, LFP's (high end), LMFP's, LMR (among potentially others). BESS will fight on cost and cycle length (because their use case is expected to use 10k+ cycles). Different EV products will pick an attribute and excel in that as a sales pitch (but may be weak in another attribute). This is the key zone for adding Manganese. It may also be the biggest overall of these 3 markets.
A third price matters most market may also develop. Solid state is probably not going to make much of an appearance here. NMC probably isn't either due to the cost of Nickel and Cobalt. This zone will be fought between LFP and alternatives like Sodium-ion but it will also be fought with product that doesn't excel in anything other than being low cost. It won't have the highest densities. It won't have the highest cycle life's, It won't have the fastest charging. It won't be the best in cold weather, but it will have the lowest price point. As soon as you say "I want excellent XYZ but at a sharp price, you are in the middle market, not this one."
Many of these game-changing type announcements mean they have a product that will now provide strong competition in one of these 3 market areas. If there was a true game-changer that ruled across all 3 markets above, I believe it would have been found by now.
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