Definitely agree here Rocket - buying is best when there is...

Definitely agree here Rocket - buying is best when there is blood in the streets. I unfortunately am running on solid losses here at the moment but still bought today as the investment case still seems to hold at this level.

I think we are still in for some pain short term as jsvik says, although I am thinking EOFY is the turning point. This coming quarter I am expecting a reasonable loss unless we can squeeze another shipment in before the end of March (thin chance at this stage IMHO). Q3 losses were 5.2M, Q4 losses 2.2M. Based on the last quarter cash statement even with a modest increase in production costs to account for the increase in fuel cost, and shipping at similar levels (although should be less based on baltic dry but unsure of the impact of using a smaller vessel) and with receipts sitting less than the 5.6M last quarter (due to reduction of volume from 41kt shipped in Dec to <37kt constrained by ship size) I am spitballing losses around 3M. I acknowledge this i far less precise than some other analysis seen on here, but this is where my head is at.

What would only be captured by the shareholders following close enough would be that while we will post a loss, there should be strong stock levels to bring on a profitable quarter in Q2. Is there any reason to expect increases in the costs side of the equation outside of fuel and shipping?

Assuming a maintained production rate of 934wtpd (as per announcement 6/1/22) and commencement of operations on 23/12/21, and sitting at 0 stockpiled after sending all available concentrate for shipping on the Top Fair in December, that would put the stockpile balance at approx 55kt at end of March (92kt produced less 37kt shipped). Ideally this would be higher with improvements towards nameplate but trying to be conservative. Over the course of Q2 a further 85kt would be produced at this rate, making 140kt available for shipping during Q2 (at 33% grade this is 4.6M dmtu available for shipping). Current price being 7.86USD/dmtu, but as rocket says this is the port price not for producers, I am going to use a conservative discount for grade and this price discrepancy and say 5USD/dmtu (happy for this to be challenged, its very loose). At those levels that is 23M USD worth of concentrate available for shipping in Q2, or over 30M AUD. If the majority of this found its way onto a ship over the quarter we should be posting a significant profit, enough to make up the Q4 and Q1 losses, and bringing E25 closer to the required cash on hand to commence stage 2.

This is all just based on the concentrate and doesn't factor in future potential in the form of:

- potential smelter credits
- stage 2 expansion
- HPMSM production down the line
- Security of supply of Mang concentrates and HPMSM in future
- Future supply deficit of HPMSM

This post definitely got bigger than intended, but happy for my thought processes to be torn apart. Current markets globally are shaky, and with E25 not currently demonstrating performance it is no wonder we are included in 'risk-on' asset classes that people want to get out of in this kind of environment. Any number of catalysts could be announced before Q2 comes through to bump the shareprice back up, but to me that quarter should be profitable and get things in the right direction from there. GLTAH