The Dawn of EV, page-1448

Unpacking what LFP to LMFP could mean.

The batteries have an anode which is Graphite and a cathode that uses a variety of mixes. The two main cathode types are LFP (Lithium, Iron, Phosphate) and NCM (Lithium, Nickel, Cobalt, Manganese). The NCM mix already includes Managanese but the main NCM mixes (111, 811, 622, 523) have a broadly similar mix of Manganese and Cobalt. That's a problem for Manganese demand because Cobalt has questionable ESG characteristics (most supply is from Congo). Its also unclear if Cobalt can scale supply enough and its expensive at around US$80,000/t. The battery makers want less Cobalt from cost, ESG and supply reasons.

This is causing two shifts within the anode mix. Within NCM mixes there is a shift away from 622 and 523 towards 811 (So more Nickel and less Cobalt and less Manganese). There is also a shift away from NCM to LFP. LFP batteries are cheaper to make but don't have the range of NCM batteries.

A couple of years ago Elon made comments around a two-thirds Nickel, one-third Manganese battery. This may have become part of the NCM mix with basically the Cobalt removed. It would have increased Manganese demand but it would depend on how much battery demand this new mix became.

This is a whole new game because the LFP battery doesn't have Nickel or Manganese in it and is growing quickly in both abolute and its relative share of the market. If Manganese is introduced into LFP battery's then that's a whole lot of battery Managanese being added to the growing battery type (and batteries themselves are growing quickly).

Currently most of the Battery Manganese comes out of China. That is unlikely to be Elon's preferred supply chain.

A snapshot from the video:


A chart appearing an LTR's 8 Feb 2022 presentation to understand the different cathodes by mass

And a mid 2021 article by ked global that is both a good overview of some of the issues and provides a market share commentary of different battery types. Since then the battery share to LFP has grown with NCM decreasing. I've read this is also behind the price shift whereby Lithium Carbonate prices have gone above Lithium Hydroxide prices as LFP uses Lithium Carbonate while NCM uses Lithium Hydroxide, although this may be a general not absolute rule.

https://www.kedglobal.com/ev-batteries/newsView/ked202110220007