the day ac became obsolete, page-8

I'm not sure about focussing on AC so much, but I'll say his 'correctness' is not as black or white as one issue. I think there are actually numerous, but for the sake of simplicity I'll break it into 3.
i) there will be a CR for funding
ii) we won't build a mine
iii) more generally, and my take, that AVB won't be 'successful', which could only be measured by SP.

I'm confident on (i) he soon WILL be wrong.
On (ii) he has recently stated that mining AN somehow doesn't count...so if that's the case we won't know for years.
On (iii) more generally, at what SP do people believe their own investment will have been 'successfu'? A 3 bagger? A 5 bagger? More... From the point of view of a successful investment I think we'll know about his 'correctness' much sooner. Surely this is the real measurement. If you took his position you wouldn't buy, so I think this IS a reasonable test.