EGR 3.13% 9.9¢ ecograf limited

PatientMan/Robbo, I don't have one that I can think about at the...

  1. 919 Posts.
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    PatientMan/Robbo, I don't have one that I can think about at the moment. But what I do know is that irrespective of the timing of the spike in the sp, the trend is definitely upwards when you look at the time between an early explorer all the way to an existing producer.

    So in 2017/8, and then again in next few years as production ramps up (assuming it does), while I would expect the sp to be a multiple of where it is now, I would exercise some caution on expecting a quick re-rate or picking the timing of it. While I was certainly expecting a quicker re-rate than what we have experienced (particularly since the FA of the company has exceeded expectations over the past 12 months, even though the sp has gone backwards), the thing we need to remember is that we are not an island. i.e. we cannot expect to re-rate significantly in a global share market like there is now. Our current sp is a stark reminder of that. Even though the company is less risky than it was 12 months ago, even though we have an extra off-take, and working on an extra-extra off-take, even though we have an in-principle sovereign government guarantee from Germany, a positive BFS, etc etc, the sp has done nothing or gone backwards. Is this because KNL has gone backwards as a company? Obviously not, as a quick glance at the announcement flow will attest. But by itself, positive newsflow does nothing for a company unless the buyers are willing to buy more of that company, at higher prices.

    Personally, I'm hoping for a (financing) deal that involves a cornerstone partner coming in. The first key "risk averse" investor that comes in with serious cash would be my indication that we are now in fund/insto territory, and that's when the sp will (at some point) start to rise. As I posted once before, a risk averse fund/insto would rather pay $1 for a de-risked investment than 20c for that same investment but with higher risk only 2 months before.
 
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