seals... at the end of the day, it's BON that loses out if no deal goes thru... (and i am a holder of both BON and MAK)... there is no other deal that would allow a BON holder to partake in the upside that MAK will have tomorrow and the day after and the day after that... until it gets into production...
BON will have $2M cash, with a delapidated partner (UCL), sitting there with its sp dropping back to 3c after people realise that it has 1Billion tonnes of phosphate, but it needs some big cashola just to even get to the end of a BFS... and you just have to look at how badly diluted other stocks have become because of these times... if BON gets bady diluted, it'll lose at least half its multi-bagger potential... they would still only want to mine up to 3mtpa - otherwise they will end up flooding the market and killing the phosphate price, which wrecks everyone...
added to that, i do recall Dr Reid in one of his UCL presentations stating that they were thinking the phosphate price would be as low as $US80per tonne by the time they got to production... (due to some other expansion happening somewhere with some current producing powerhouse)... so even from that, BON on its own will be lagging - behind MAK, behind Legend, behind even Phosphate Australia (as they already have an old resource estimate)...
and that is where i think as one company, it would be a powerhouse, and have the ability to look after both sets of holders.... if BON is absorbed by MAK, your BON holding will go up probably 6 or 7 times (and up to 12 times)from todays price, by the end of this year... but BON on its own is not going to get to 35c (5c times 7) is it... why would it ?? just because it has a 42.5% interest in 1billion tonnes of phosphate... it would have to raise more cash and dilute just to get to a BFS, which probably would be completed into 2010... with a MAK/BON tie-up it seriously stabilises the financial and dilutionary elements that BON is facing on its own...
ask yourself this - what can BON achieve with $2M in the bank come april2009 ? how much will it need to get to the end of a BFS, and when will this all happen, and many more shares will need to be handed out in order to get this done ??
AD, TE, and DW are all also holders of BON... with an 11.7% holding i doubt they would be getting MAK to takeover BON if it was not a decent deal... there is no MAK vs BON here...
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bonaparte diamond mines nl
the deal is good...
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