The definitive EV thread. No spin. No BS., page-1370

"Bleeding billions: The oil cartel is losing control of the market"

In todays SMH - its behind a paywall.
disallowed/business/markets/spiralling-the-oil-cartel-is-losing-control-of-the-market-20240911-p5k9lw.html
some snippets:

On the demand side, China has become a major challenge for OPEC+ this year and perhaps well into the future. China’s faltering economy and the pace at which it is electrifying its transport sector with electric vehicles and LNG-fuelled trucks has caught the cartel by surprise.

China’s oil demand growth, until recently 500,000 to 600,000 barrels a day, has slowed to roughly 200,000 barrels a day.

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The rate at which China is electrifying its transport fleet appears, if anything, to be accelerating. That would represent a structural change in its demand for oil and in the global market’s dynamics.

While elsewhere, the rate of growth in EV penetration seems to have slowed [I hope DV understands what this means] , the uptake of EVs is still strong and will add to the longer-term reduction in demand for oil.

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Other industry analysts think the new floor price for oil is around $US70 a barrel, although Bank of America’s analysts think it could average only $US60 a barrel through next year. For the OPEC+ producers, that’s a grim prospect.They need an oil price of $US90 a barrel or more to balance their budgets. The Saudis, having embarked on an expensive program of radically transforming their economy, are thought to now need something closer to $US100 a barrel.

It’s also not good news for the Russians, with oil revenue providing the bulk of the funding for the militarisation of their economy to support the war in Ukraine.
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if he [Trump - should he win] were able to follow through on his promise to introduce a baseline tariff of 10 to 20 per cent on all imports, with a 60 per cent tariff on imports from China, there’s his pledge to remove regulation from the shale oil sector so that it can “drill, baby, drill”.

He thinks that can halve US gasoline prices within a year, lower the inflation rate and bring down interest rates.

Of course, US oil companies are already producing at record rates, and it isn’t clear that, even with Trump’s proposed deregulation, they could significantly and almost immediately increase production materially.

The gap in the logic of Trump’s plan for the oil sector (gaps in logic being a not uncommon feature of his plans) is that, in the current environment where there is already a building glut of supply, more US oil would force the price down further.[And that explains the problem with US EV makers - petrol is very cheap, americans have been brought up on a diet of cheap petrol and large cars, and now US is the worlds biggest supplier of oil. Oil companies are doing their damnest not to lose their market, and, unfortunately, they have convinced many that EVs are bad. At least the Europeans have a semblance of a carbon price - they have more tax on petrol]
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Not wishing any good luck to the oil companies and all those that support them.
Good luck to everybody else (except the shorters).