No worries. I still have my spreadsheet, so I can try different...

No worries. I still have my spreadsheet, so I can try different scenarios.

But first remember that the FUDders here think EV sales will evaporate, so from their point of view my scenario was overly optimistic.

OK - now I tested with the BEV penetration rate increasing by 1% per year. Last year it was 7% of all car sales. So I tested with 8% for 2024, 9% for 2025 etc until 43% in 2060.

The result is that in 2060 the GWh required for BEVs is 28.6TWh, whilst NSW grid capacity would be 163TWh. There would be 11.9million BEVs and 37 million cars in all of Australia.

Assuming the rest of Australia has a similar grid capacity as NSW, then as NSW has 8.17 million people the grid capacity for the whole country might be 163/8.17*26.01 = 519 TWh.

Therefore in 2060 the BEV requirement would be 28.6/519 = 5.5% of the total Australian grid capacity.

Again its hardly a problem. And even then this still does not take into account that many Australians will be using their own solar to charge their cars.
According to https://profile.id.com.au/australia/dwellings in 2021 there were 7.6 million houses and a total of 10.8 million dwellings. So three quarters of Australians live in houses and have the opportunity to install their own solar panels and batteries (for which the price is coming down).

So, the grid will survive easily - provided that it is increased in capacity according to the population growth - something that needs to be done regardless of BEVs.

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A more aggressive scenario: increasing the penetration rate by 2% a year - so in 2060 it is 79% of all vehicles sold.

The result is 51.4TWh, or about 10% of the total Australian grid capacity.

I dont think in my lifetime there will be any problems with the grid.

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Feel free to suggest other scenarios.