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Giobria

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25/06/24

23:18

Post #: 74487697
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Originally posted by Giobria: ↑

No worries. I still have my spreadsheet, so I can try different scenarios.

But first remember that the FUDders here think EV sales will evaporate, so from their point of view my scenario was overly optimistic.

OK - now I tested with the BEV penetration rate increasing by 1% per year. Last year it was 7% of all car sales. So I tested with 8% for 2024, 9% for 2025 etc until 43% in 2060.

The result is that in 2060 the GWh required for BEVs is 28.6TWh, whilst NSW grid capacity would be 163TWh. There would be 11.9million BEVs and 37 million cars in all of Australia.

Assuming the rest of Australia has a similar grid capacity as NSW, then as NSW has 8.17 million people the grid capacity for the whole country might be 163/8.17*26.01 = 519 TWh.

Therefore in 2060 the BEV requirement would be 28.6/519 = 5.5% of the total Australian grid capacity.

Again its hardly a problem. And even then this still does not take into account that many Australians will be using their own solar to charge their cars.
According to https://profile.id.com.au/australia/dwellings in 2021 there were 7.6 million houses and a total of 10.8 million dwellings. So three quarters of Australians live in houses and have the opportunity to install their own solar panels and batteries (for which the price is coming down).

So, the grid will survive easily - provided that it is increased in capacity according to the population growth - something that needs to be done regardless of BEVs.

===

A more aggressive scenario: increasing the penetration rate by 2% a year - so in 2060 it is 79% of all vehicles sold.

The result is 51.4TWh, or about 10% of the total Australian grid capacity.
I dont think in my lifetime there will be any problems with the grid.

====
Feel free to suggest other scenarios.

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Originally posted by Quamera: ↑

I think you have made a fairly reasonable set of assumptions there but are being a bit too conservative with the BEV proportion of total sales. 2060 is a long way out but depending on government legislation, how soon solid state batteries are developed for the mass market and many other factors I would suggest that the majority of car sales in Australia would be BEVs well before then. So the demand on the grid by BEVs will be substantial but because it will happen gradually over a period of time the network will be updated to match the demand as it grows, it won't be "killed" as suggested by our chief FUD spreader.

Expand

I though I might add a bit of data about solar.
Current installed capacity is 35.6 GW according to https://pv-map.apvi.org.au/analyses
Assuming a modest 4 hours per day sunshine then the current yearly supply of electricity is 35.6 x 4 x 365 = 52 TWh per year.
That on its own is already more than what is needed in 2060 for BEVs.
Meanwhile solar installations will grow - it has been growing in a straight line for the last 5 years:

PLS Price at posting: $3.15 Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
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