Here is the worksheet - but don't show danwell.
growth rate % ===> 1.20 as per pop growth see note at bottom starting at 1.9 reducing to 1.2 to match US cars/1000ppl 5.5% of total cars variable market share as per next col sales market share % prev year + sales less 20 year old BEVs 2400 kWh per year per BEV year Population mill NSW grid supply TWh Australias grid supply TWh cars growth rate registered cars mill cars/ 1000 ppl new car sales BEV sales registered BEVs GWh demand for BEVs 2021 20.10 2022 26.01 1.90 20.48 787 1,081,429 34,000 2023 26.32 105 334 1.90 20.87 793 1,216,780 87,000 180,000 432 2024 26.64 106 338 1.88 21.47 806 1,180,850 82,660 7 262,660 630 2025 26.96 108 342 1.86 21.87 811 1,202,837 156,369 13 419,028 1,006 2026 27.28 109 346 1.84 22.27 816 1,225,006 232,751 19 651,779 1,564 2027 27.61 110 351 1.82 22.68 821 1,247,350 311,837 25 963,617 2,313 2028 27.94 111 355 1.81 23.09 826 1,269,864 393,658 31 1,357,275 3,257 2029 28.28 113 359 1.79 23.50 831 1,292,544 478,241 37 1,835,516 4,405 2030 28.61 114 363 1.77 23.92 836 1,315,384 565,615 43 2,401,131 5,763 2031 28.96 116 368 1.75 24.33 840 1,338,376 655,804 49 3,056,936 7,337 2032 29.31 117 372 1.73 24.75 845 1,361,517 748,834 55 3,805,770 9,134 2033 29.66 118 377 1.71 25.18 849 1,384,799 844,727 61 4,650,497 11,161 2034 30.01 120 381 1.69 25.60 853 1,408,216 943,505 67 5,594,002 13,426 2035 30.37 121 386 1.67 26.03 857 1,431,761 1,045,186 73 6,639,188 15,934 2036 30.74 123 390 1.65 26.46 861 1,455,428 1,149,788 79 7,788,976 18,694 2037 31.11 124 395 1.63 26.89 865 1,479,210 1,257,328 85 9,046,304 21,711 2038 31.48 126 400 1.62 27.33 868 1,503,099 1,367,820 91 10,414,125 24,994 2039 31.86 127 405 1.60 27.77 872 1,527,089 1,481,276 97 11,895,401 28,549 2040 32.24 129 409 1.58 28.20 875 1,551,171 1,551,171 100 13,446,571 32,272 2041 32.63 130 414 1.56 28.64 878 1,575,338 1,575,338 100 14,987,909 35,971 2042 33.02 132 419 1.54 29.08 881 1,599,583 1,599,583 100 16,500,492 39,601 2043 33.41 133 424 1.52 29.53 884 1,623,896 1,623,896 100 18,041,729 43,300 2044 33.82 135 429 1.50 29.97 886 1,648,271 1,648,271 100 19,533,631 46,881 2045 34.22 137 435 1.48 30.41 889 1,672,698 1,672,698 100 20,973,578 50,337 2046 34.63 138 440 1.46 30.86 891 1,697,170 1,697,170 100 22,358,910 53,661 2047 35.05 140 445 1.44 31.30 893 1,721,677 1,721,677 100 23,686,929 56,849 2048 35.47 141 450 1.43 31.75 895 1,746,211 1,746,211 100 24,954,898 59,892 2049 35.89 143 456 1.41 32.20 897 1,770,763 1,770,763 100 26,160,046 62,784 2050 36.32 145 461 1.39 32.64 899 1,795,323 1,795,323 100 27,299,565 65,519 2051 36.76 147 467 1.37 33.09 900 1,819,883 1,819,883 100 28,370,613 68,089 2052 37.20 148 472 1.35 33.54 901 1,844,433 1,844,433 100 29,370,319 70,489 2053 37.65 150 478 1.33 33.98 903 1,868,964 1,868,964 100 30,295,779 72,710 2054 38.10 152 484 1.31 34.43 904 1,893,466 1,893,466 100 31,144,060 74,746 2055 38.56 154 490 1.29 34.87 904 1,917,930 1,917,930 100 31,912,201 76,589 2056 39.02 156 496 1.27 35.32 905 1,942,345 1,942,345 100 32,597,218 78,233 2057 39.49 158 501 1.25 35.76 906 1,966,702 1,966,702 100 33,196,100 79,671 2058 39.96 159 507 1.24 36.20 906 1,990,991 1,990,991 100 33,705,815 80,894 2059 40.44 161 514 1.22 36.64 906 2,015,201 2,015,201 100 34,169,846 82,008 2060 40.93 163 520 1.20 37.08 906 2,039,323 2,039,323 100 34,633,831 83,121 Note: figures in blue are actual - the red are from danwell.finn - the rest are my estimates/calcs Australia's grid supply based on the figure for NSW and prorated based on population 8.17 mill in NSW
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Here is the worksheet - but don't show danwell.growth rate %...
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