"a lot of extra electrons Australia must find and accelerate through the aluminium / copper grid"
What is your intent with this post - to spread FUD?
I don't dispute your figures, but it seems you are making a case that the electricity demand for EVs will overwhelm the grid.
Now I don't care about the govt targets - what I am interested here is whether PLS will be successful, and EV sales are a large part of that.
First - regarding your post: one could just as easily have said in 1910 that because there are only 7 servos in all of New York City, then they cannot possibly service the millions of ICE cars that the city will have eventually. And, the refuelling would require people to queue up for a week. Of course it is easy to see the flaw there because in 1910 there were not too many cars, and over time the number of cars and servos increased progressively in lockstep.
Now I just had a go at progressing the impact of BEVs over the next few decades until 2060 (when I'll probably have been interred for a decade or two).
I am not going to quote any sources because you are likely going to accuse me of using just the ones that suit me. And I won't show you my excel table. Instead I welcome your comments on my findings.
However, I will give you my assumptions - and we can debate those if you like. I have tried to be conservative.
1) Australian population grows at 1.2% pa, from 26 million in 2022 to 41 million in 2060
2) Registered cars grow from 21 million in 2023 to 37 milliion. I have tapered the growth rate down from 1.9% pa to 1.2%pa so that in 2060 the number of cars per 1000 people matches USA's current 907 (our current rate is 793).
3) New car sales is 5.5% of total cars on the road. This matches the average lifespan of cars at just over 20 years, also the number of cars per capita is increasing slightly - as mentioned above. So, new cars sales grows from 1.2 million now to 2 million in 2060.
4) The number of BEV sales is 7.1% of total sales - that is the figure for 2023 and I set it constant for the period. Note that DVEous is continuously posting that the sales should decline. So according to him I would be overestimating. I expect the sales to increase from 87,000 in 2023 to 144,800 in 2060, bringing the total BEV fleet from 180,000 to 2.5 million.
The results: based on your numbers - 2400kWh consumed by each BEV per year, the total requirement is 6 Terawatt hours per year.
Now, you said the total NSW demand for electricity is 105TWh pa - but as the overall oz population will grow from 26 mill to 41 mill, ie 57% more, then assuming all Australians continue to use electricity at the same rate, the overall demand for NSW should be 164TWh.
Therefore,
in 36 years time the demand for electricity by all Australian BEVs will be 6/164 or 3.66% of total NSW demandHardly something to get your knickers in a knot.
Then, of course, what is happening with solar, wind, hydro, and maybe nuclear during all this time?
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