RED 2.70% 36.0¢ red 5 limited

Its frustrating that the SP will not move upward. Not knowing if...

  1. 748 Posts.
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    Its frustrating that the SP will not move upward. Not knowing if the market is right or it is overlooking a solid gold producer. In the latest report I've been looking at the indications is the latter, Red is a great investment. If you are interested the report lies here
    https://www.explorationinsights.com/pebble.asp?relid=3443
    The essence of the report is to determine the true cost of producing an oz of gold. As it says
    "In the last fifteen years we have seen companies report “Cash Costs”, “Total Cash Costs”, “Total Costs” and, now, a move by Goldcorp to report “All-in Cash Costs”. Confusing, to say the least since these ratios and numbers are not signed-off by auditors or accountants and are not even recognized by any Accounting Standards Board anywhere in the world. The companies can use these calculations in any way they wish and frequently the equations for the calculations vary by company. Confounding the entire issue is the concept of “Co-product” accounting or “By-product” accounting – the selection of which has the most fundamental impact on all of the above “Cost measures” but which many companies don’t even bother to specify in their financial statements."
    Further on in the report it goes on to say
    "Mines don't produce gold or copper or nickel - they produce cash! Really good mines produce piles of cash. Really old mines or bad mines produce cash but then have to reinvest it just to keep production steady, with no real cash going onto the balance sheet.
    There are two truths in analyzing financial statements: the bank balance and outstanding debt have been checked by the auditors; and the cash flow statement never lies."

    And
    "The first thing to look at on the cash flow statement are the three subheadings: Cash from Operations, Cash from Financing Activities, and Cash from Investing Activities - there is no other place for cash to come or go except into one of these three bins. The auditors have signed off on these numbers and the company can't mess around here."
    There is much more interesting info in the report but these extracts are what I want to throw up.
    Lets go with the part of the report that says the cash flow statement is the essence of calculating the true cost of production. From the ASX lodged reports, since recommencing production in Jan this year  (9 months) Red has spent $27,827,000 on operations. During the same period they spent $24,405,000 on investing activities. This makes a total of $52,232,000 cash spent in this period. They produced 41,382 oz of gold. This calculates true costs  to $1,262 per oz of gold to date. This includes restartup, floor cleanup, capital works to improve roads, drainage and a major part of the slip clean up.
    Now back to dollars. I'll use the PoG  ($1493 per oz) as of Friday close because its too difficult to do it any other way. Producing 41,382 oz gives a total revenue of $61,783,362. Costs to produce this gold is $52,224,084. Gives a $9,558,916 profit for this period.
    If this proves to be correct I'm sure the market will eventually adjust significantly upwards. There are still the inherent risks with Siana mine but at lease I can say they make a profit according to the cash flow report.
    Anyone wants to knock me down, I'm more than happy to take the blows if this is incorrect.
    The above are my opinions and calcs are mine and should be verified before investing.
 
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36.0¢
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