BABBA - even at 3am you come up with the tough questions...
Yeah, high level answer is that I have no idea....I suspect it could be a combo, they were in a rush to get Covid vaccines and related medicines out....maybe they were too reliant on prelim data?
Some drugs can test really well in the initial stages as its heavily targeted and focuses samples, eg through inclusion and exclusion criteria...release it into the wild of the general population and you start getting better reads and how the drug performs in a much, much wider set...it could be partly because of that and only then it was observed that the benefits were marginal at best unlike what they saw in the smaller sample sizes.
This is where I get a bit more enthusiastic as I know the body of evidence for iPPS is wide...from the smallest of mammals to a good set of human daata, SAS being some 800 plus now. We hear in the 10% odd cases where it doesn't work there is no further damage or gross side effects being witnessed. To get even a fraction better results than the strongest of pain medications like the Opioid class without the additions and the nasty longer term usage based side effects is a real plus point for us.
I tend to think that its difficult to see how they could reject it, on what ground, specially when there is evidence of lesser drugs getting through the determination hurdle.
HUTS7 - I like your perseverance and patience, it's a rare skill to have, specially with the younger generation...everything is instant gratification otherwise they don't want to be a part of if it. Yes it has been very very disappointing that we, years later, are in a much worse share price position..
but mate, I'm definitely more on the other side of the fence....a $400 mil dollar deal back then -v- multiple Billions now and into the future at a cost of 5 years, though painful that was...
To have just 350 million shares for such a large future potential, large in the sense of our target market but even larger when you add in just a few of the potential new indications, that Heart Fraction stuff is enormous on it's own (yes I understand that's a good 8 years away, maybe more).
We are now in a really good position, despite what the balance sheet looks like...despite what the majority of the market thinks and of course despite what our shares are being traded at, it certainly in no way reflects the real value.
What's that Buffet quote?
The Market Can Price Things Wrong"Price is what you pay.Value is what you get." Don't focus on short-term swings in price. Focus on the underlying value of your investment.21 Dec 2022
Today we are PAYING $0.255
The VALUE that I personally see is minimum eventual annualised revenue of 500,000 patients in USA plus say 350,000 in Europe and maybe 400,000 patients in ROW.
Call those figures 'at peak' in 8 years after we are full licenced.
Now multiply all that by only $2500 USD...let's be conservative and say it's only AUD....
Then take just a 15% royalty on it (we should be at least 20% stepped up plus...but keep it at 15...)
That's:
(500K + 250K + 400K ) X $2500 X 0.15 = $468 million odd.
P/E Ratio? My mate in Sydney says use 50 for a newly growing company...I say no, let's use just 15.
$7 Billion is the answer.
I will halve this to account for anything I'm just getting too enthusiastic about.
3.5 Billion, our market cap today is what...89 Million!?
How many 89's in 3500?
39.
What's 39 times our current SP?
Someone?
Anyone?
A very rounded $10...
This is the value in the future...call it 8 years after we get our full European and American license....but it will go up long before that when a Commercial deal is signed and revenue starts.
Thats super conservative
That's NO DM
That's very little, if any, Off Labelling.
Not advice
Spec commentary, there are still risks
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