the devils advocate

I ask this question of everyone:

What do we really know about APG other than what has been announced over the years? To me this is a difficult question to answer irrespective of what has been stated in the company announcements or here on HC.

For instance, it is quire reasonable to say that reading HC in addition to company announcements has provided an abundance of information, with much of it being consistent/ complimentary. But how much of it is factual? At what point is its reliability questionable? This is the question that many of us should remember when reading views and opinions that are based on the tiny snippets of information released by the company.

I take a contrarian view at this moment, somewhat in reflection of what has been an amazing run in the fortunes of APG. It has to be said that the information released for all to read and interpret is at best limited and open to speculation - this being the position that we find ourselves in at this present moment of time (i.e. BHP).

I take for example the announcement last year re: BHP. It is quite clear from this and subsequent announcements that there is a potential commercialisation deal on the offering and we have all been lead to believe that everything is "progressing very well". But is commercialisation realistic and what does "progressing very well" mean.

One could interprete this in many ways such as:

BHP are genuinely excited about the technology and are proactively negotiating an agreement;

BHP are genuinely excited about the technology and are cordial in discussions about the future;

BHP show interest and have retained dialouge with APG about the future;

BHP are interested and are still reviewing matters as they consider their position re: the technologies; and

so on and so on .......

There are many possibilities, all of which we could entertain in the absence of news. In fact many if not all give us hope of bigger and better things.

There is a famous experiment about a rat placed in a water bath with no exit. If left without giving it hope of escape, it drowned rather rapidly. But after giving it hope, it swam for hours whilst waiting for its next chance to leave the water bath. How is this relevant? Well its like this.

Say BHP has shown any one or more of the above attitudes and have consequently lead APG management to believe that commercialisation is just around the corner. Discussions continue and BHP reserve the right to decide the next step - as is the case at the moment. But BHP remain silent on their next step and continue to do so indefinitely without disrupting the expectations of APG management and its shareholders.

But why would BHP do that? I don't know, just thoughts, but may I suggest that it could be within their interests to remain silent on progressing an agreement. Their motive could be anything, but what if their internal R&D is also working overtime on similar technologies and all it needed was some APG inspiration. What if they just wanted to tie up the APG factor in a long winded process of negotiations only to draw APG away from discussions with BHP competitors. Too many possibilities come to mind.

So, enter HC and the opinions/ views/ interpretations of information snippets. No offence to anyone intended, but I regularly hear unfounded statements such as:

"Announcement soon"

"Announcement very soon"

"Announcement very very soon"

"Announcement must be iminent"

"We all know BHP will do a deal with APG"

and so on ........

I ask the question - how soon will this announcement be? Not because I'm nervous - I see APGs technologies as top shelf stuff - but because I'm uncertain of BHPs motives. Its been six months since the BHP announcement and I've heard little more than:

"Its progressing very well"

I challenge all of you to consider where APG is at the moment and what the future may bring. Unlike the rat, we have a voice and we should be making it clear to our beloved Managing Director that BHP represents only one of many possibilities and we should not wait for their 'considerations'.

GC