If the company goes into Administration, then the Carlyle...

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    If the company goes into Administration, then the Carlyle syndicate gets the keys. As the trial has failed the agreement is in default and it is already their prerogative to wind it up now, which is why the suspension and why the directors need protection enabling them to act in good faith in the face of disaster - without it they would be sued for trading while insolvent.

    At present there is some money in the bank and the Carlyle syndicate will decide whether they can get more of it now before it is spent. Once it is gone it is gone and they know the chances of refinance or a future capital raise unless some kind of magic occurs.

    The second trial may be the saving grace and if there is any glimmer of hope for success then it will stay on track, probably with the company staying in suspension for a lengthy period until the results are known. That means a lengthy wait, but gives protection for shareholders.

    Unfortunately the company's full focus will be on the lenders' interests as they are fully secured and in the position of deciding whether it sinks or swims. They will be taking a very deep and careful analysis of the company's position, trying to identify any assets which could mitigate their losses, so an announcement could come at any time, completely out of the blue - that is usually how it happens. That would be the result of the lenders protecting their own position to minimise their losses

 
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