the dow is still going to fall follow the tad, page-7

If you look at the trend before a reversal it is always like this - the trends accelerates slowly at first, then faster, then comes to a screaming frenzied climax before the reversal. (Yes I'm still talking about stocks!)

I think the next two weeks with be a catharsis of the dead wood - a few banks will collapse and many more rescued. A few hedge funds will collapse and this will cause the carnage on the markets as they liquidate assets to try to remain solvent as there short-term finance collapses.

We could see another 20% drop yet and I think it will be fast and savage - the quality plunging with the chaff.

In the next two weeks the time to buy will be upon us as many stocks capitulate as sellers (inc banks/hedge funds) have to sell at any price (Margin call/liquidity crisis/panic mainly).

Meanwhile in the parallel universe called the "real world" people will continue to eat, live in houses, use petrol, and buy plasma TVs, the Chinese, Indian, South American and soon African populations will still want what the West has and consume resources to get there - and after a few months uncertainty business will start growing again to meet this challenge.

Remember that the organisations that are most at risk of failing didn't really contribute much to the world and only really skimmed off the cream from the toil of others that actually did real things producing real goods and services for real people. We are better off without the Lehman's, bear stearns, goldman, merrill, BNB and MCQ skimming countless billions off the top - and IMO the world economy will be much stronger in a couple of years for having flushed out or beaten down these parasites.