the downside

Good evening everyone.

Has there been a sensible, contrarian discussion with regards to the downside that CCI faces. In that I mean, most of the posts over the past couple of weeks paint a very rosy picture, but in terms of getting this stuff out of the ground, what risks does CCI face? I understand that the agreement with BEE reduces the geo-political risk, but thats just a small part of the whole equation. This stock is $0.018 for a reason.

Its not like the hotcopper community has stumbled onto some sort of hidden gem - the market is factoring in risks associated with this project....what are those risks?

What is the potential downside from the current levels.

How much more scrip are we looking at?

Have they targeted a potential market for the product?

What are the macro forecasts for chrome?

Sorry to sound a bit too contrarian, but the story sounds that good that I cant help but be a little cynical.

Technically speaking, the chart is looking good. I'd be expecting to see some pretty stiff resistance @ 0.02. This was a critical support level in late 04.

In terms of the discussion with regards to the options - the expiry is Sept 2007 - some 18 months of time value left in them. I think the oppies would do the following if the FPO's were 5 cents on the various dates

Feb 2006 - FPO's 5 cents - Oppies - 3.0 cents
June 2006 - FPO's 5 cents - Oppies - 2.3 cents
Sept 2006 - FPO's 5 cents - Oppies - 1.8 cents
Jan 2007 - FPO's 5 cents - Oppies - 1.2 cents
June 2007 - FPO's 5 cents - Oppies - 0.5 cents

If what I have read is accurate, there is a realistic chance that the FPO's, bar further capital raisings, could be 5 cents by June 2006. I think 2.3 cents is a fair premium for a 15 month strike date. Others may disagree, but I follow equity options quite closely and high risk speculators will often push the premium well past its delta.

Would be good if those in the know could address the risk issues associated with CCI.

Cheers in advance

marchello