ust recently I had the good fortune to listen to a series of seminars that revolved around what to look for to increase one's chances of obtaining a Disallowed company as an investment.Tonight I share some of these tips and insights with you. But unlike a well trained parrot regurgitating info anyone can garner...I tailor it to us.
Two part'er tonight, again originally it was just going to be one page of pointers and Mozz tips...but the more I thought about it, the more relevant and pertinent points I find myself writing about. References in part 2....tonight my poison of choice in the simple Gin and Tonic on a balmy Victorian night.
Please as always, enjoy.
I love to research all things PAR and iPPS...for me, it's a constant and wondrous discovery.
"Mozz loves to research?". Hmmm more food less research for Snoopy-Mozz?? Nah, other way around...Why do I do this?Simple rationale but more succinctly put by someone else:
“Learn the macro from the micro”. - Josh Waitzkin
It doesn't really matter how you got here...you are here...this one is so open to discovery from the ground up...from the micro to the macro...the underlying biology, pathology and chemistry.
I love to discover the itsy bitsy changes iPPS makes at a cellular level, I then understand more about the ramifications of WHY and HOW this works. This leads to my conviction, this leads to my confidence and I sit here today and have a better sense of what this might be valued one day when everyone else finally catches up —— and they will.
Yes sometimes the science is plentiful and complex and I have stop, let it
digest and come back to it...There are many learning's and experiences one gets over a lifetime and mistakes are made, heck I've made some doozies for sure...buying at exactly the peak...selling way too early....not buying enough...but the thing is you gotta learn from these mistakes.
Possibly one of the most prudent lessons I have learnt is to be patient. Yes there is a time to crystalise profits...but I have learned over the years that for some plays, a core is the way to go. Yep, have fun with the peripheral holding, trade it if you are nimble enough...but it's the core that will add to coffers in a meaningful way and some of my best investments are the ones where I haven't tinkered, even when they went down and moved away from me initially....the ones I've almost forgotten about over time have often been the most bountiful. The only problem is that it usually takes a bunch of time for these to play out.
Tonight come with me as I explore some tips and thoughts for increasing the odds of achieving a ten bagger, I know a couple of HC PARsians reading this that are much more than this 10 X already in their investment in PAR...they are still on the dusty road to even greater achievements.
The dusty path, on and upwards.Let's tackle the points:
1) Are customers SO sticky that they will never leave?In our case..there is nothing to leave to...What's the alternative? Nothing at all comparable...and if there is...it's full of side effects or it doesn't work or it eventually becomes addictive or does more damage than good. We give, in most cases up to 9 to 12 months of relief. Trials such as 006 the extension study and 009 the re-treatment study will test the effect of re-dosing and how long our drug lasts, what is the percentage break up and average number of days a given patient can expect the magic to last before a booster.
Here is the bonus for us PAR shareholders, we already know a lot of this. Normally there is a bio pharma company, the say they might have something good...they organise a trial...and we hear nothing for months...for years...we have radio silence as our spaceship goes on the other side of the moon....and if we are lucky the read out is good and we blast off from there....HOWEVER, in our case we
already have a glimpse of the real world results trajectory! These aren't only results in a magazine, a newspaper ...they are results from our own PAR patients right here at HC PAR.
It just don't get better than that!You know I love my PAR research, I wade through the science....but what's even better than that is to hear it from these guys...how they struggled with immense pain, their lives were upside down......they tried it out and now they have wiped out the pain...gone...they have a new lease on life...they are younger again...well via function, pain and PGIC. Some star patients like our own
Happell of course will be off the charts, the outliers perhaps? I'm very happy for him of course but just quietly I'm also happy there is a cohort that needs re-treatment (see next point).
2) SAS (software as a service) is big these days....Many companies have moved from a one and done sale to a subscription model, much more lucrative. The classic example here was Nanosoncis.
They have a brilliant device to completely sterilise ultrasound probes, they sold the units and then realised wait a sec... there is better scope in either leasing out the units to hospitals and clinics and/or using a subscription model for peripherals such as printing paper and Hydrogen Peroxide and other consumables etc. Overnight money spinner.
This model pays for itself after just a few years. How does this apply to us?
Nice case study Mozz, how does it apply to us?
In our case we can expect the start off injection course to be $x per 12 injections and in some % of cases (around 40% I believe is being mooted) they will need boosters every 12 months, there is your life long subscription and recurring revenue. A win win. The initial course will be big enough, lucrative enough, don't worry, but add the recurring boosters and it's a massive kick. Ask
Pool-Lord,
Ceviche or even
Oxxa and I'm sure there are a number of others, about ARG (Accelerating Revenue Growth) and future Cash flow.... relevant for us later in our story. Boys, I want an in depth analysis as we fly through the hurdles later on...give me the ratios...tell me the P/E...I want YOUR analysis on Cash Flow and NPV and how we are tracking...fun times ahead for you boys when we are revenue accretive.
3) Are we Cyclical or Secular dependant?Well Cyclical is reliant on patterns such as the weather or the end of an accounting year or an event like Christmas....Secular...means it doesn't matter what season or event...they still sell, perhaps like toothpaste or cornflakes are good examples. PAR is highly secular...people are in pain all the time. OA doesn't stop during Mother's Day for instance.
4) Will management suffer if the company goes down? Ah a key question, can also be read as skin in the game...
This is skin in the game...5) Is the world our Oyster - Is there much growth left....?
The world is our oyster.
What are you talking about...we haven't even started this growth path...wait till we get revenue..a trickle at first...then the flood...a few years away but I can wait....I hope you can too.6) Multiple pots on stove? I want a Backup.
The key to success is not having to rely on just one indication....Back to my old days for an example...If I invite a girl over for dinner no way would I risk just one Mozz dish ...I'd have at least 3...so if one doesn't quite work out and is a bit bland, I got two backups....then there is dessert....to cap it off, I'd always bring out the Entertainment Mints after desert..those thin wafers of yummy goodness double dark choc.
Hey hey stop it...don't even go there.
It's the same with us...Paradigm has multiple main dishes on offer...yes iPPS can potentially work it's magic not just on one but multiple inflammatory conditions. YOUR company has potentially 3 more LONG term projects in the pipeline...Back up, backup, backup ...do not be reliant on just one avenue of massive sheer and raw growth...7) Plan it.
Paradigmers, I also know for a fact our company is not a fly by the seat of your pants type concern....they are planning well down the track...whether it be looking into forecasting....manufacturing or supply....
having the right and capable skilled staff in place to lead us...thinking solidly about when the best time to strike a deal is...putting the right people with oodles of experience into the right positions.
I got this clue right from the onset, way back at AGM time in 2019 when Paul announced that we are using the Good Great Dr Felson, a world renowned figure in not just OA...but RA as well...It was these little clues that gave me a new level of confidence...added weight to my prognosis...Yes, YOU are invested in a unique long term thinking company. This adds to my conviction.
Here completes Part 1...
In Part 2 we tackle a few more hurdles we must cross to make what we have into a possible ten bagger...we'll even cover the quirky aspect of a particular letter in a scrabble game and what it might have to do with us?
Part 2 also promises some choice quotes to get you guys thinking and hopefully for us all to stay focused during the more quieter times and the stock-drifting times which just in my opinion, may change quite soon.
(20min delay)