the end is getting near, page-20

twin turbo...

'Current cash burn of about $4m per annum means $1.2m less than 4 months working capital'

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i do beleive those above figures are historical pertaining to 2010 financial year? recent history perhaps.. but not 'current cash burn'?

if recent history as u suggest extends into 2011 with same ratios then those calcs about 4mths time may be correct.. but they are not at this point in time..and they may or may not be perhaps?

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in support of this history repeating:

1. history of over estimation under delivery. TREND? WILL THIS POOR TREND BE TESTED AND BROKEN THIS FINANCIAL YEAR?

2. mgmt change after change historically b4 successes, INFIGHTING? LACK OF CONSISTENT DIRECTION AND LEADERSHIP?

3. past contract estimates failures so far exceding successes to date. OVER OPTIMISM?

4.past manipulation of information and various false representations from within the house outwards DECEIT?

5. past allowances by previous mgmt to be conned out of various IP's. LACK OF AWARENESS? LACK OF LOYALTY?

6. poor sales conversion history. EYES FIXATED TOO MUCH ON IMAGE AND RUBBING SHOULDERS WITH INVESTORS THEN WITH CUSTOMERS? WINE AND DINE UR INVESTORS AT LEAST AS MUCH AS UR POTENTIAL CUSTOMER?

7. greed from various stakeholders that pushed the house too much and placed undue pressures on employees. DISRUPTIVE? TOO MANY COOKS SPOIL THE BROTH? GREATLY REDUCED OR IRRADICATED AT THIS POINT IN TIME?

8.directors not yet putting a substantial amount of their own financial backing into the stock. SPRUIKING SUCCESS BUT NOT HAVING THE NERVE TO SHOW FAIR RISH TO PARTAKE IN IT THEMSELVES? CAN SOMETIMES INDICATE OVER OPTIMISM? FEAR? LACK OF CONVICTION? IF THE GUY IN CHARGE ISNT BUYING/HOLDING.. WHY SHOULD I BELEIVE HIS APSIRATIONS HERE?

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in support of history not repeating:

1. more honesty has been observed in disclosures from the house.. even despite previous annual reports perceived number fudging. SIGNS OF INTEGRITY APPEARING?

2.contracts have been signed.. substantial ones.. company has most recently stated there have been some delays in rollouts from developer side..indicating contracts are still existent and expected to come to fruition.. BELIEVABLE OR NOT? DECIDE FOR URSELF?

3.some institutional investors have begun to closer observe and purchase.. MORE EXPOSURE? DRAGGING IN MORE CUSTOMERS AND MORE HOLDERS THAT FOLLOW INSTITUTIONAL BUYERS?

4. recurring revenue prospects STABILITY AND INCOME ASSURANCES GOING FORWARD? BELEIVABLE PERHAPS IF WE BEGIN TO SEE ESTIMATES FROM MGT ACTUALLY MARRY UP TO ACTUALS..

5. affiliations continue to grow and extend from existing client base.. MULTIPLE DEALS FROM ONE INITIAL SALE PITCH OR CONTRACT OR CLIENT? ONE SMALL CONTRACT WITH A LARGE CLIENT IS FOOT IN DOOR TO EXPONENTIALISE SALES FOR LESS INPUTS?

6. cost cutting occurred throughout business.. relocation of office..contractor adjustments.. studies have been done and action taken to improve cost efficiency.. GOOD FOUNDATION FOR PROTECTION AND CREATING INCREASING GROSS MARGINS? DIFFICULT FOR COMPETITION TO CHALLENGE TENDERS GOING FORWARD IF A GOOD FORMULA HAS BEEN DEPLOYED HERE?

7. rollout costs of hardware etc billed to client at time of rollouts on site.. LESS BEARING ON CASHFLOW REQUIREMENTS TO EXPAND CLIENT BASE.. COST OF EXPANSIONS SET TO RECOUPED EARLIER THEN PRIOR?


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there are probably more on both sides.. but i think thats a fair batch for this debate?