As I watched TV this morning it became shockingly clear to me what the future of the USA is ? complete and total economic collapse. The idiots in DC have made it crystal clear that not only will they not cut one single dollar from the deficit, they fully intend to keep increasing the debt at a geometric rate. Not only is the debt not sustainable, its not sustainable for even a few more years. There is no longer any basis left to hope for a less then catastrophic end.
Fiscal 2012 will see the economy going into a tailspin; it's already started. Tax revenues will decline further and we will see at minimum a deficit of $1.7 trillion and more likely $2T. Now here's the kicker. Nearly half of the US debt is financed short term, the average maturity is about 60 months or five years, meaning it has to roll over 20% of 14 trillion every year. This will put the US in the position of having to borrow $5 trillion annually.
Can anyone seriously believe that a sinking global/national economy could continue to fund debt to the tune of $5 trillion at an average yield of around 1%? IT is just inconceivable to me that the market will continue to fund 1/3rd of GDP to these crap bonds and bills. Not going to happen no matter what the Fed does interest rates are going to rise and we will see bond auction failures but for the Fed stepping in and buying the slack. Thus will begin another round of monetization that will escalate as conditions deteriorate.
As I have stated here before this time will be different. As the economy and markets collapse there will be no flight into the ?safety? of US treasuries because that safety is gone. There will be no safety in any government bonds nor any type of paper and we all know what that means. Huge gobs of money will pile into the hard paper assets, commodities.
Is there any chance that the Fed can kick the can down the road again with another round of QE or whatever they might dream up? As we have seen, the effect of each successive round of money printing gets less and less. QE 2 propped things up a mere six months. The important thing is that confidence is being lost even by the true believers. Once that happens its game over. The next round of Fed interventions will not be received with great joy but rather fear. TARP. QE1, QE2 have all failed. Three strikes and confidence is lost. My guess is that QE3 will buy them 3 months maximum and the gig is up.
We should be cognizant that while this has taken years to play out collapses, when they occur, happen suddenly and that will certainly be the case this time. It will come without further warning and catch most people by surprise. They will move heaven and earth to try to stop it, including shutting down markets along with the issuance of all sorts of emergency decrees.
One possible scenario is that we could once again see massive deleveraging, which means we could see huge sell-offs in the massive gold and silver hedges that will again drive prices way down, and could go into the $20's for silver. When the panic comes it will be fast and furious so do not be surprised to see silver suddenly rise to $50, then crash to $20, then soar to god knows where.
Scary times ahead but just a matter of time in my opinion.
In the end gold and silver will be reign suprime and companies like AYN will not be able to get the stuff out of the ground quick enough.
Regards,
Al.
As I watched TV this morning it became shockingly clear to me...
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