If the Chinese put a figure on the table at say $15 they stand a...

If the Chinese put a figure on the table at say $15 they stand a chance at ownership in the short term. Short of that and they run foul of the shear reality that an offer that is deemed too low will not attract enough buyers to give them control. Let's not forget two vitally important things here...

They only need 51% of the stock to take control...BUT...

They now need to factor in the 10% they've probably committed to Epangalo, which in turn means they now need to add that percentage on to their net ownership.

AND

Takeovers NEVER transpire on day one of any formal offer. They always conform to a set pattern involving complex exchange of documentation, time to acquire shares from SH happy to sell at that time and at that amount etc etc. Add to this the complication of (in this case) actually having to co-ordinate bids for TWO companies, and the EXTREME likelihood of counter bids etc, and you have quite a convoluted process.

This is exactly what we want folks, time to extract the maximum for this ripe plum.

What will happen on or before the 8th, will be the Chinese declaring their hand formally, or deciding to walk and wait for another 6 months. The later is highly unlikely as EXT are also discussions with Nab gov re acquiring 10% of the action and these discussions are well advanced.

Add to this the likelihood that (according to JL), stand alone financing is not a problem (and remember we don't need the whole $1.5b immediately, only in stages as development rolls out)... and you get another incentive to get serious at the negotiating table.

Neither CGNPC or RIO will want to be lumbered with a third party financing commitment that is not favorable to them (or even necessary).

On Dec 8 it starts to get exciting for SH, whatever happens.