There will be a correction or period without much/any capital appreciation at some point, that's how markets work. I expect the share market to have a big upward run at some point in the not too distant future which will all be part of a pick up in the economy = rents and wages will rise bringing yields back to more normal values. A property crash wouldn't fit very well with my overall economic outlook.
I have little doubt that in the long term my market call will be right but that's not to say there won't be a final sell off before the next major upswing. So that could fit a property crash into the scenario I guess, similar to the last bit of the sideways period after 1987 before the last major bull or if Trump and the rest of the world bugger everything up we could get another major sell off like the mid 70's - again that would fit with a property crash. Do I think these scenarios are likely? No.
Since the 1960's we've had 4 major sideways periods(not including this current period since 07). Those periods have lasted 7 years, 10 years, 5 years(not shown on my chart - questionable whether to include it) and 10 years. In November this year we'll notch up 10 years since the last peak at 6800 ish. After each sideways period we've had a big upswing in the share market. I haven't checked but I highly doubt that there have been any significant drops in property values during those upswings.
You might want to argue it will be different this time and I'm sure there were plenty who did back during those periods too. Having said all that, anything can happen which is why I don't discount the possibility of a major property crash and share market crash but I think it highly unlikely. I do with I had a long term DJIA chart I could overlay on my XAO chart but I probably don't need to in order to know that for our market to take a serious nose dive we would need overseas markets to do similar and that looks even more unlikely at this stage.
