LYC 1.05% $7.69 lynas rare earths limited

The end of the fourth round of rare earth national tender, page-28

  1. 7,651 Posts.
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    Per usual gobble gook to confuse things. Prices are inside China and include Vat. But who cares. If the prices rise 30% in 8 weeks without VAT then they rise 30% with vat. Yes different markets may have offsets but they all rise together. So if one market rises 47% Nov '16 to May '17 another market is probably within = or minus 3 of this. Who made you judge and jury of what index to use. You say prices have been going up in a controlled manner. 30% in 8 weeks does not seem controlled. Please point to anything that says that is normal. It went up that much because that was the period of China stock pilling. There are many examples of when governments manipulate markets they do bad things.

    My key point was prices have gone up more than sufficiently to have Lynas go positive on earnings and maybe make a half cent / YR. That it is not necessary to keep pulling items out of context to convince people prices are going up. Even if NdPr prices fall back 10% they will be profitable in H1 '18, Maybe H2 '17 depends on lag. Prices have been flat for 3 weeks using several different markets. Do you even do charts?
    If people think the price has to go higher in the short term what do you think will happen to stock price with a 10% negative correction? Why do you continue to publish things like prices went up in May. Why are you not publishing they are up almost 50% from an all time low in Nov '16 and this is more than enough to have a true profit. I think you have been hopping for higher prices for so long you have failed to recognize just how nice the recent rise has been and what it means.

    You say controlled price rise. Back it up by explaining how 47% in six months or 30% in two months is a normal market movement. No you will probably come back with something about how i did not include e vat because you never answer direct questions.

    Last point regardless if Lynas sells for more or less than the market that I use they will see the price rise in % and that will make a very nice change to ASP. You apparently do not believe that by your reply.
 
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