"Eurozone Fiscal Brakes Are About to Kick InThe French government ran a fiscal deficit of 4.9% in 2024. The rule is 3.0%.This is why France argued loudly to not return to the old rules.On a Debt-to GDP basis, France is in even worse shape. “France Government debt accounted for 111.7% of the country’s Nominal GDP in Sep 2023, compared with the ratio of 111.8% in the previous quarter.”On a debt-to-GDP basis, Germany is 66.1%, Greece 173%, Italy 142%, and Belgium 104% according to Trading Economics.The target is 60%. Good luck with that.Congrats to Estonia at 18.5% and Ireland at 44.4%. Zero Chance to Hit Targets I see no realistic chance for France, Greece, Italy, or Belgium to hit fiscal targets within four years, or even 10.Those countries will likely make a token effort. The first thing headed into the ash heap of history will be green policies. That will have the EU greens and Biden hopping mad.
