I know off another pattern that's been repeating and repeating here!
The numbers don't lie Paul. The trend is your friend. If you fight the trend, you WILL be right...eventually but only after a metaphorical battering. Production could be 25,000bopd by then and the share price god knows where by the time overall production declines.
Your argument reminds me of people who say property investing is uneconomic and so prices are about to fall.
Have a look at the most recent chart I put up. I think it may help.
FDM Price at posting:
63.2¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held