BMN 3.11% $3.74 bannerman energy ltd

the facts and where to?

  1. 3,394 Posts.
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    As a holder of BMN, I believe Hanlong's offer is as good as it gets and probably a sweetner from Hanlong is a plus.

    Firstly, we must be realistic with offers and the uranium industry as a whole esp. after the Japan nuclear fallout from the quake incident.

    The uranium industry is not like the iron ore industry or rare earths industry. I'm not trying to sell out our shares for cheap, but look at the facts:

    1. the iron ore industry is tight with fewer "sizable" suppliers and demand side is very high due to China's urbanization and modernization, so they need more steel to build newer infrastructures and buildings. The supply side is heavily dominated by Brazil's Vale, RIO, and BHP (which control about 70% of the global seabourne supplies). FMG is a distant 4th, with many smaller suppliers.

    2. the uranium industry supply is abundant, looking around the globe, you can buy many deposits in Canada, the US, Africa, Central Asia etc. Look at how many uranium mining and exploration companies. Alot. Demand side? prior to Japan quake incident, it was looking like a long term robust thing esp. with China planning to eventually to create about 130 nuclear power reactors for the country. But after Japan quake incident? demand side has collapsed with Germany and Italy to ban nuclear power and eventually close off their existing reactors. China and Japan had reviewed their nuclear policies and Japan going to increase LNG usage for power generation and China, will probably construct eventually 60 to 80 reactors nation-wide.

    I have SDL as well and Hanlong is also bidding for SDL, which I think and confident of getting a higher bid, as their is less choice out there. Whereas for BMN, if our board does not agree to 61.2c or even a possible sweetener like say 63c? Then Hanlong can walk away and look elsewhere.

    I'm very surprised that our board had called Hanlong's offer has highly conditional, but looking at the conditions they listed, is it that conditional?

    Conditions:
    1. completion of due diligence (normal for all bidders look at Peabody and MCC)
    2. approval from FIRB and Chinese regulatory bodies like NDRC, Ministry of Commerce etc) - look at takeovers by Arrow Energy (COE) and Caledon Resources (CCD)
    3. BMN board recommendation for scheme of arrangement
    4. no material adverse change or occurences (of course, look at the deals like Russia's ARMZ takeover of Mantra Resources (MRU) and CGNPC's takeover of Kalahari Minerals)
    5. all the other noted conditions are blah blah and no big deal

    But look at the bright side, Hanlong said: "the continuity of BMN senior management"; you get to keep your jobs.

    So ask ourselves are these really even conditions to be highly conditional? I don't think they are.

    Look at ARMZ's $6.87 bid which was agreed by MRU's board and the deal was successful. It dropped from the original $8 offer. Look at the fallout of the CGNPC bid for Kalahari Minerals which the Chinese company wanted only a bid 8% lower than the original and Kalahari board was quick to agree to the revised offer, only to be opposed by the British Takeovers Panel.

    I think its in the best interest for us shareholders that the board to negotiate for a sweetener and recommend Hanlong's bid.

    That way, we can move on, and transfer any future risk to Hanlong.

    Happy to hear your opinions.
 
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