BIT (ASX) the facts

Originally posted by Legume ↑

"Many years of research and development"... and still without an inkling on how to conduct science...

"Full credit to the management team for responding to shareholders disappointment"... I'm bemused... but I'll take a bite...

"The BIT225 group was adversely impacted because 12 out of 20 patients withdrew from the
study for reasons beyond our control and in most cases NOT because of ill-effects from
BIT225."

This is not a valid conclusion to make:
1) 12 out of 20 patients discontinued from the trial in the treatment group (BIT225)
2) 0 out of 20 patients discontinued from the trial in the control group
3) This is statistically significant (with a z score of 4.14 from a two proportions test, equates to a p of <0.00001)

THEREFORE... BIT225 was the cause of the patients exiting the study and we are statistically greater than 99.999% certain of this conclusion.

"The interim data also shows that 88% of patients with HCV genotype 3 treated with
BIT225/IFN/RBV had a sustained virological response (SVR) 12 weeks post treatment
(SVR12). This is considered predictive of permanent virus clearance – i.e. cure.
In the placebo group, 90% of patients also had SVR12. These results are somewhat
surprising given that, historically, only around 68% of patients would have an SVR at 12
weeks with IFN/RBV. However, response rates to IFN/RBV can vary, depending on many
factors, including age, gender, genetics, degree of liver damage, amount of virus in the
system and others."

Again... hate to break it to the pseudo-scientist writing this garbage. The only comparison that is scientifically valid is that to the control group. What was the number for the BIT225 group? 88%... the control group? 90%... ie. the same... therefore the only valid conclusion is that there was no additional benefit to using BIT225 in conjunction with IFN/RBV... in other words, IFN/RBV does all the work and BIT225 does nothing. The FDA also has a knack for wanting discontinuations included in the dataset for reporting benefit... ie. in the BIT225 group 8 patients reported a 88% improvement, and 12 patients reported a 0% improvement... therefore the overall benefit of BIT225/IFN/RBV was 35% versus the IFN/RBV formulation which is still 90%. This is a significant result and you'd be scientifically and statistically correct to say BIT225 had a negative effect on the health of patients.

So in fact, there is no credit to management because they have not justified the results and the statements they have made are not scientifically valid. All they've done is gone out and tried to sell a terrible set of numbers, with an intention to deceive and lie...
and if my memory serves me right, then this was the first controlled trial BIT undertook... and believably controlled experiments separate out the duds.

hfor if you believe management, then hate to break it to you... they are lying.

Expand

Legume....Will Australia ever produce a biotech (other than CSL)...the ASX is littered with duds (MBP, ACL, TIS, BLT (maybe) , VCR, ..maybe someone should compile a comprehensive list for those about to lose their hard earned.. The duds with management that lie/cajole are sickening and by god there are lots in that category.

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