the faith in nms, page-9

Mookie

"NMS has dropped from $1.50 to 0.40c. My other stocks have also made me considerable money over the last 6 months."

Understood and fair comment. Sure there have been great gains to be had (and many missed) elsewhere in the last little while and some NMS investors are understandably disappointed to see the recent fall back, but your apparent frustration with NMS still depends on your position. It doesn't change the fact that NMS is good buying again now.

Your positive thoughts for AIM and MAE are sure not to be shared by holders who saw these companies in earlier times at $1.70 and $4.55 respectively too, no matter how well you believe they are doing. (With sp of only 16c and 0.79c respectively now) This is my point. Your accumulation point(s) skews your thinking on a stock, so buy smart to begin with (when stocks are unloved) “before” the crowd puts them back into strong favor and consider where they are going after they are over-hyped. Unlike NMS, AIM (and to a lessor extent MAE) are certainly not keepers well into the future as growth stocks IMO.

""The current management is performing very strongly it would seem."
Do we have any proof of this? Don't see any new contracts or forward earnings guidance."

Attending the EGM would have been a good start, but there are large letters written on the wall elsewhere of where Lange will take them too. Open yourself to a little research and fact finding.

"Yes probably missed quite a bit from the EGM I agree."

Yes indeed. It provided a very different image of what they were up to compared to the announcement that was made to the market at the time. The announcement version was decidedly uninspiring, dry and boring. The EGM provided a lot of very positive (and this time, totally reasonable) guidance about where this new strategy is leading.

"Where has anyone from the company told us what "easily expected" earnings are?"

They haven't necessarily. You'll need to use your own noggin and industry/investor experience for this. Firm earnings estimations from the company would be useless in such a developmental and volatile earnings period for the company. As a secondary indicator however, look at the industries and personalities involved. Agostini and Lange wouldn't be involved in a small organization if it didn't look the goods from their end. Otherwise, they'd be beyond it. Have a look at other companies in similar industries too (and they are without NEPSYS and still earning fortunes!)

"On paper the fundamentals of the company have always looked sound to me. Haven't they always been looking to move into oil and gas?"

Yes exactly. It was always their plan to conquerer oil and gas and they still look good on paper. Cocos Is was a start considering NMS were “outsiders”, but they didn't have people in the industry to make it happen quickly or decisively beforehand. Now they have oilers and oil & gas industry leaders involved and they can fairly target oil in the Gulf and in Australia in the short term. It is all extremely positive. (The personalities in the new diving outfit they are buying have also been dealing with oil & gas, blue chips, navy, etc for some 20-30 years)

"Chart over the last 6 months is terrible."

Don't care. The charters were wrong last time it was at 40c a short time ago (it then went to 85c) and have a good chance of being wrong again ... if you are interested in doing the trading thing. That's charting. But to be fair to charters too, it is clear the present range of 39c-45c or so is still very important to the next few months of NMS. It is somewhat of a crossroads for significant movement either way. Various TA indicators look good at the moment and the resistance levels just need further confirmation. Catherines Davey's assessment (as posted by vespasian) was spot on as far as chartists viewpoints are generally concerned. However, if the 39-40c resistance fails, I doubt the fundamentals and progression in the company are likely to ever let the price get to the lower point on her evaluation. Note the upside potential she writes about too though. No one is debating that sort of level is possible. (It is nice to see a detailed explanation with a chartist putting it on the line with reasons for a change. So few charters give clear, honest reasoning for their price selections usually. Catherine Davey however, has done justice to her art.)

"Managements record overseeing the Danish contract and IEV is terrible."

Yet again .... Let it go mookie. I am sure you made a few mistakes when you were young too. That is long past company history. They appear to have screwed up with the Danish deal as an immature compnay. Its simply a prospect that never came about. IEV too, is still there, but basically on the back burner at Lange's say so. There's more important, more immediate company and customer building opportunities being baked first. (A relatively succinct and fair explanation of Lange's due diligence findings in the first three months with the company was offered at the EGM. IEV is not totally dead, just not the best direction for now, now that the oil and gas talent is on board. Asia was always a longer term venture from the start in my thinking and perhaps more complicated than Harrison & Co understood it to be at the time too. At the same time, Asia is still not necessarily dead and gone forever.)

"Investor confidence is shot. No institutions on board.""
Don't be so sure. Only trader confidence is shot at present. Accumulators are drawing bargains from traders fleeing into unsustainable momentum buying elsewhere. As for institutional buying in general, as from the beginning there is little stock for them to have. Lets see what Lange has up his sleeve. He's sure to have thought about this aspect of the business very carefully already. (Research what he did for expansion in past companies. Such research is quite revealing in terms of the specialties and talents he brings to NMS in this particular area.)

"No consistent revenue."
Read your announcements properly and go to meetings. All the information about securing revenue and ensuring stability in earnings in future are there. These were Lange's primary aims for the company in the near future. Including the $3M+pa revenues mentioned in the latest announcement. The ann says related earnings will contribute to NMS as of July. And there's more to come from the NEPSYS side too (absolutely) no doubt ! (Logic says that hiring commercial diving contractors is the most expensive cost component of projects, so now they have potentially just improved their margins even further too.)

Either way, its buying time. Not selling time. I hope Neppy doesn't disappoint you twice, when they return to sustained multiples in the sp with their strong management and distinct competitive advantage. It is all just straight logic, no dreaming.