I have to say, on reading the article, my immediate response was 'thank goodness' Call me naive but I see this as excellent news. China rare earth indusyry is finally growing up. I used to be horrified at the waste in using neodymium magnets in cheap handbags and toys. Each Chinese supplier cutting prices by a dollar or even a few cents just to undercut another supplier. Illegal mining meant that selling rare earths at 'cabbage prices' still assured profit. They were practically giving it away so they could make a few cents while others went bust. The central government had tried for years to get it under control. Now, finally, maybe they will.
Make no mistake, it probably suited the Chinese govt that ROW rare earth development was held at bay in the time of 'cabbage' or 'earth' prices, but equally, China now wishes to get the 'rare' side of the prices. Pricing power will no longer be with the illegal or renegade producers. The industry will be turned around. Rare earths will not be undervalued, overused, overexploited, wasted and sold dirt cheap. Value adding and conservation will be key in industry development. The word discipline comes to mind. Disciplined use in a growing and advancing industry.
And China will need supply. In this scenario, most ROW players that survive will end up selling concentrate etc to China for processing. Not Lynas. Lynas will continue to value add, at least to the oxide stage now and potentially beyond in coming years. If ROW does not care about hegemony, or at least about self sufficiency, then, their loss, although I suspect they do care, while moving at the glacial pace of govt bureaucracy and pedantry.
As I've long said, as long as the demand for Lynas products remain strong, I don't really concern myself too much about hegemony. China has clearly built itself into the leader of the industry over decades. This will remain the case for long while yet. The most the ROW can do at this stage is to try to ensure a sustainable and diversified supply, we've all now seen firsthand what relying on ine source can do, both geographically and politically. Lynas has the advantage of being potentially a universal supplier at this stage, to the extent that it has the know how to supply the full suite of iideoxides to both China and ROW. So if the US or EU really don't give a fig about China's hegemony, so what? Lynas products and profits are my concern. The future looks rosy from a demand point of view. China has an interest in not wasting the product and selling at low prices for low end use. People everywhere, not just China want the green goods containing rare earths, no sign of the trend abating. Lynas does and will continue to sell into China. Good enough for China, good enough for Lynas, good enough for me.
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