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ContraryJ

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12/01/22

04:35

Post #: 58790887
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Originally posted by vwboy: ↑

I could have left out the ord minnet valuation but (you know who) ;-) will mention it anyway

Macquarie analysts are bullish on the direction of Lynas shares. They say recent actions addressing the company’s operations could give Lynas a shot to widen its footprint outside Malaysia.
Specifically, analysts reckon Lynas’ strategy to move its upstream leaching and cracking operations to Australia is a solid approach to diversify from its Malaysian processing plant.
Macquarie says the shift in operations “should enable total rare earth oxide and [neodymium and praseodymium] output to more than double over the next five years from the FY21 operating level”.
The Macquaries team notes this output level equates to a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 16% into 2026. Macquarie, therefore, expects Lynas to outperform and values the company at $12.20 per share based on its market modelling.
Meanwhile, the team at Canaccord Genuity also recently initiated coverage on Lynas with a buy, joining the likes of Barrenjoey Markets and Cowen.
Each firm reckons Lynas is set to outperform the market substantially over the next 12 months and each has valued the company at just over $10 per share.
Ord Minnett is less constructive, however, and values Lynas at a paltry $4.60 with a ‘lighten’ rating – that is akin to a sell recommendation.

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first thank you for both sides of argument. As Far as the statement

Macquarie says the shift in operations “should enable total rare earth oxide and [neodymium and praseodymium] output to more than double over the next five years from the FY21 operating level”.
Lets look at Data. FY2019 was the only year that Lynas came close to making the pre NEXT rate of 6000T they made 5898T. Next was fully implemented for all of FY2019. after that nothing but problems Covid and logistics kept them from doing 6000T again. Now the published Capacity of Next is 7200 T a year which they have never made in a Q. They did it for one month.
according to Lynas the published Capacity of the 2025 plan is 10.5 T yet these people are saying more than 12T in five years which is 2026. You can believe any prediction you want but I would like to see a post Next production of 1800T a Q For 3 or 4 Qs before I started talking about 2000T a Q.
https://www.shortman.com.au/stock?q=lycs
Has the data on 2019 production
2021 https://wcsecure.weblink.com.au/pdf/LYC/02439287.pdf

LYC Price at posting: $10.99 Sentiment: Sell Disclosure: Held
1 Upvote

0 Great analysis

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