Mags,I think this is interesting work that you have done. I dont...

Mags,

I think this is interesting work that you have done. I dont build revenue forecasts this way but the investor I mentioned in my post above does similar analysis to you. I will post it if I get permission.

IMO, we will all have to adjust our different models when we get a better sense of two strategic shifts in its sales process that the company has recently described .
1. The direct sales force has clearly focused more on larger , bundled , higher value customer opportunities.
By the way, we can see from the C4 that the cost of staff has barely moved from Sept 2018 ($ 8.4 million) to September 2019 ($8.4 million including non-recurring or $7.3m net) I suspect that within these numbers it means that the direct sales force has only increased slightly. With a larger pipeline , the direct sales force is logically going to focus on larger opportunities ., We can also see that the average size of new customers is much bigger than the average size of existing customers (as Mags points out)
2. The company is re-emphasizing the partner channel. If successful, this will lead to (i) a larger number of new customers but (ii) Typically a larger number of customers with a smaller average ARR because the partner channel will be fed the mid-sized and smaller leads and also because the partner will keep a share of the revenue.Ideally it will have an extremely low Cost of Acqusition, since the partner does the selling.

Until we get a better sense of how these two shifts are affecting the number of new customers, the size of new customers and the cost of acquisition of customers, all of our models (yours and mine) are going to be error prone. In theory both of these shifts should be positive:
#1 means larger customers
#2 means more customers
BUT the proof of the pudding is in the baking. It will be a little opaque during the transition unless the company provides us with some metrics (For example, It would be great to have some numbers on ARR generated by partners at the half year stage).