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The Figures and the Triggers, page-89

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52 Posts.

15/11/19

23:39

Post #: 41458291

Originally posted by Vmk Research: ↑
Summarizing my very long-winded post.

The Company's Base case of $100 million ARR by June 2021 would suggest a stock price of approx $1.50 by June 2021.
The Downside case , where we looked at a slower growth rate and a forced sale of the company suggests 45 cents by June 2020 . A slow growth rate but better market sentiment (10 x EV/ARR) would suggest a stock price of 65 cents by June 2020). So call the "slow growth" scenario 45-65 cent range.
Reversing the valuation process and asking what growth rate is priced in the current valuation ....we observe that the market is currently pricing in zero growth (at EV/ARR of 6x)......and even if we price the stock at a distressed EV/ARR of 4.5 by June 2020, then that is assuming the company can only add $1.3 m ARR per quarter. Thus we conclude that at this price, the market valuation is expecting the company to grow at less than 1.3m ARR and then be sold for 4.5 x Annualized Revenues.

Value buyers at 30 cents are expecting either something better than $1.3 million quarterly growth in ARR, or a better take out price than 4.5x ARR.
Expand

Average ARR(M) added Compound Growth per quarter yearly Growth 2021

Current ARR 7 quarters to go ARR(M) Multiples Market Cap(M) Share Price
Current 42.9

6.11 262 0.32

bear Case1
2.4 4.91% 25.06% 60 4.5 270 0.28

Bear case 2
3.9 7.25% 38.60% 70 5.5 385 0.41

Base Case
5.3 9.31% 51.50% 80 6.5 520 0.55

Base Case 2
6.7 11.17% 63.88% 90 8 720 0.76

Bull Case
8.2 12.85% 75.80% 100 11 1100 1.16

LVT Price at posting: 32.0¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held

10 Upvote

0 Great analysis

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Last 0.6¢		Change 0.000(0.00%)		Mkt cap ! $6.474M

Open	High	Low	Value	Volume
0.0¢	0.0¢	0.0¢	$0	0

The Figures and the Triggers, page-89

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		Average ARR(M) added	Compound Growth per quarter	yearly Growth	2021
	Current ARR	7 quarters to go	Compound Growth per quarter	yearly Growth	ARR(M)	Multiples	Market Cap(M)	Share Price
Current	42.9					6.11	262	0.32

bear Case1		2.4	4.91%	25.06%	60	4.5	270	0.28

Bear case 2		3.9	7.25%	38.60%	70	5.5	385	0.41

Base Case		5.3	9.31%	51.50%	80	6.5	520	0.55

Base Case 2		6.7	11.17%	63.88%	90	8	720	0.76

Bull Case		8.2	12.85%	75.80%	100	11	1100	1.16

The Figures and the Triggers, page-89

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