Been a while peeps.I feel it’s worth injecting some perspective...

Been a while peeps.

I feel it’s worth injecting some perspective into the discussion that seems to be simmering away - what’s this worth?

Comparison point - Amylyx Pharmaceuticals
MC - Just north of $1 billion US.
Really only has one drug - Relyvrio
Does Relyvrio work in Alzheimer’s - nope. Their presentation to the FDA seeking approval for AMX-0035 (Relyvrio) in ALS confirmed as much: https://www.fda.gov/media/161378/download
Safety / tolerability issues - you bet.
Will MPL provide a better safety profile, slowing of progression and OST - looks that way but we will know more within the current fortnight.
So, for the sake of spitballing a value, let’s just assume MPL’s efficacy etc. is on par (rather than better than) Relyvrio.
That puts the deal at no less than US$1.03 billion.
Which is AU$1.58 billion.
That’s $2.86 per share IF every available option converts and we have a further 25 million share placement to raise funds to run a registration trial.
Now add in the preclinical data that suggests MPL via autophagy induction is likely to be beneficial in other ND’s, first in human proof that it crosses the BBB, and possibly efficacy in cancers, too.
Depending on when that deal is done - and how much risk is off the table - I cannot arrive at a figure sub US$1.3 billion.
That’s a SP of AU$3.61 allowing once again for every option to convert and for the same 25 million placement to fund an ALS registration trial.

The take out: understand that the value you hold has nothing to do with the current SP. Do not underestimate the
commercial value that sits just over the horizon.

Cheers for now.

Densy.