The Final Charge , Phase I/II MND Results & FDA ODD Approval Catalyst, page-655

MT has stated that circa USD $2b is what he has in the back of mind, based on Amylyx MC post phase 2 results. So we are well before phase 2 results. However he has gone to great lengths many times to also point out a pre-clinical buyout of -

1. Takeda licencing Acura Stem AS-202 for USD $580M. Displays potential in regulating TDP-43 (any similarities?) I think this was pre phase 1?

2. Biohaven licencing of BHV-8000 for USD $970M. Below is a table of the BHV-8000 pipeline under Biohaven. Sound familiar to conditions we may treat? Notice all still pre or early phase 1?




Both deals are obviously based on hitting milestones, with enough up front capital to run necessary trials. But for where we are is circa USD1B really out of the question? Approx AUD $1.54B. If we use a rough future figure of 550 SOI, then approx. AUD $2.7 / share.

But I'm only guessing. There are a myriad of factors but given other analogues in the space I'm thinking it's not out of the question for our current status.

Big pharma still is de-risked by moving early and setting up payments based on hitting milestones (ODD, Successful 24 week P2, 48 week P3 etc). The final balloon payment, and higher weighting of payment would not doubt be based on getting FDA approval. If that doesn't occur, they haven't risked the farm up front.