Mmm ... lets work on your assumptions being right, they are...

Mmm ... lets work on your assumptions being right, they are not, but lets go with them for arguments sake. Firstly if you were to use your 8,000 ml @ 925 ..... that would be 7.4 million not 8 million and secondly if you assume a 38% allocation on 12,000 ml your requirement the amount that would be need is actually 7,440ml. So that already brings down your figure to $6.88 million (7440ml x $925). Finally to get a net effect you would need to deduct 420 per ml they would have paid in any event (so 925 - 420 = 505). So even under your own scenario a figure you quoted at almost $8 million would have a net effect of $ 3.75 million (7440 x 505).

They still have $ 15 million undrawn on their loan facility and that is available until November 2021 ..... So the claim of administration by August 2020 seems a little bit premature, no ?

In addition and I will not pin my hat on it but to provide a counterpoint to your view the longer range forecast shows for Mildura region fJan to April rainfall likely to be above average and this when the significant majority of the water requirements are needed for MRG.