the final word on valuation

I'm Marksman. In 2005 I started buying AED at 83c. I subsequently sold and rebought (including 16/8/07) all the way up to double digits when I dumped the lot including a parcel at $10.86. (My posts are still there - knock yourself out scrolling back)
Suffice to say I made a lot of money.
Now that I've established my credentials I suggest you sit back and keep your mouth shut and learn.
At the all time high of $11.40 the company was valued at just over $1.7B. The company has now been split. The ASX listed bit accounts for 40% while the unlisted bit accounts for 60%.
Lets get something straight. Chinese communist party officials masquerading as oil company execs do NOT determine the value of AED. All the dreamers got that fact???? If you cannot absorb this fact stop reading because you are simply wasting your time.
The market determines the value of a listed company on the ASX. Once that fact seeps in it becomes obvious that the $1B valuation is mere pie-in-the-sky bullshit.
At $2 the market (assuming 150m shares) values AED - the listed bit - at $300M. If 40% is worth $300M than 60% is worth $450M which gives a total of $750M for the whole enterprise.
Remember, the Chinese have an asset that can be potentially traded (with a lot more difficulty of course) just like AED shares on the ASX. They can sell this asset anytime they consider it prudent to do so. They do not have a gun to their head forcing them to hold indefinitely.
If - as some d/heads are suggesting - a value of $5 is attributed to AED that means the entire enterprise is worth $1.875B! ($750m for 40% plus $1125M for the other 60%) which is ludicrous given the all time share price valued the company at $1.7B when the market expected 30k BOPD! At best AED are suggesting 15k BOPD and nowhere have I seen a figure of 30k BOPD mentioned let alone forecast.
Going back to the above it becomes apparant that at $5 a share on the ASX the Chinese could subsequently sell their stake in AED for almost DOUBLE what they are supposedly paying! ($1125M verses $600M)
Are you kidding me?
If you follow this then the maximum price AED should trade at tomorrow is $2.66. The listed bit is then worth $400m and the Chinese bit $600m which adds up to the mythical figure of $1B.
My take is it won't close tomorrow anywhere near $2.66 which would represent an almost 4 fold increase from the $270M the market valued this enterprise when it last traded around $1.80. In fact as one of my associates pointed out this morning if the sp had been trading last week it would have been butchered and be residing in the low $1s with a value of about $200M!!! At $2.66 or a $1B valuation that would represent a five fold increase for the whole enterprise which is too ridiculous for words.