the final word on valuation, page-6

I dont hold, but of interest,

the other way to evaluate it is to say that AED retain 40% of 15000 bopd, so=6000 bopd.

so thats 6000x100x365=219 mill earnings to AED.

I dont know what the costs are but lets say half?????
so 110 mill profit, (after tax then 77 million).

For a PE of say 8:1????? that supports a MC of 8x110=880mill

Current MC 281 mill at 1.85 last close,
so 880 mill would be a SP of 5.80.

If you say a PE of 4? in the current market conditions? then halve that.

But OIl is a good sector, but then there are risks of a single project, so what PE is right.

On a basic glance I would have to say that nzsteve figure of $5 is fair, but that would be the long term target, assuming production deleveries are smooth and continuos.

Could halve the figure if PE 4 ascribed for extra risk.

So bottom side eval roughie is 2.90

Just my Unbiased opinion.

As I said i dont hold, but would consider entry if it went anywhere near $1- $1.50. And it would be only those wanting to reduce exposure to risk IMO, that would exit.

cheers