The Flywheel and the Whale

In Linius’ very recent webinar, we saw a pronounced shift in JB’s messaging.

JB in his previous webinar had signaled to the market that Linius was at "the inflection point" in the sports vertical.

The market rejected this and fair enough based on Linius’ awful track record of over hyping with very little delivery in the one stat that really counts - revenue deals.

The share price sank like a stone – almost to the very bottom of the ocean.

During last week’s webinar, fresh from 2 domestic league wide signings, A-Leagues & Cricket Australia, JB spoke with an unusual mix of equal parts excitement and poise.

The inflection point was real, after all.

But this time JB signaled to the market "the flywheel effect" has started.

I misunderstood the flywheel effect initially. According to Atlassian.com, the flywheel effect happens when small wins for your business build on each other over time and eventually gain so much momentum that growth almost happens seems to happen by itself.

Yet, the market has barely noticed.

Either would be investors don’t know of Linius or they feel so thoroughly burnt by Linius 1.0 their hatred is blinding.

On scouring social media, I could not find a single comment on the bird. Hotcopper faired marginally better with a few past holders (who are obviously very well aware of Linius & its disappointing history) commenting they bought their stock back again with a sense of surprise.

In addition, a few long time believers in the technology noted they had held on and doubled their holdings while others have decided to sit and wait for more evidence.

And now here we are in the balance with demand slowing and a mistrusting market; the knife’s edge.

I maintain Linius is at the Gates of Dawn; the cusp of a massive breakout.

But it’s going to take some serious volume, by my reckoning probably at least 100 million shares from which the traders can go to work and drive momentum.

What news would create that kind of buying frenzy?

JB pointed out that 4 negotiations in the pipeline are in the “hot” stage and seems confident in one more deal by Christmas (LinkedIn).

Based on recent signings, my guess is the NRL and AFL could well be amongst these hot 4.

Either of these signings would keep momentum going and introduce Linius to new investors.

Yet JB also demonstrated a pathway to profitability and that’s roughly 5 more deals of a similar size to A-Leagues and Cricket Australia.

So it’s still not quite enough to get Linius over the Rubicon to a whole new world of self-sufficiency.

But JB went further to introduce an “absolute whale” in the hot zone of the pipeline and described its qualities without giving its name:
“It’s one of the biggest sports archives in the world, which will open up multiple opportunities beyond initial deployment. We’re highly engaged in this opportunity across multiple levels of this organization and have clear sight to bringing this home. This is a global organization across dozens of sports and some of the biggest brands and sports leagues in the world.”

Obviously, IMG is the prime candidate based on Linius’s current engagement with IMG founder’s son, Todd McCormack, in the US and with IMG in the UK via partner SwanBay TV (Wolves, Club Brugge). We were also informed SwanBay are in negotiations for rugby, tennis and golf – 3 more IMG sports.

I would not rule out it’s Endeavor, IMG’s parent company, and the 100% owner of UFC and streamer of WWE.
Endeavor Streaming Group Signs WWE, Which Leaves Disney's BAMTech - Variety
There was even a suggestion last month Endeavor would consider buying the WWE.
Endeavor president on WWE: "Would we buy it? Who knows?" (postwrestling.com)

For now, IMG is the most logical answer.

Interestingly, JB noted at one point during this latest webinar “plus we have the EFL (IMG) on the verge of launch”. The A-Leagues is scheduled to launch after the World Cup concludes in mid-December. It’s possible the EFL will launch around this time, too, thereby making it equally possible the EFL is the before Christmas aspired to deal.

The whale.

The market didn’t believe JB the first time – the inflection point.

It raised an eyebrow the second time – the flywheel.

How do you think the market will react if JB hooks the whale?

High volume breakout anybody?

Early birds?

Imho & Gltah