The Flywheel and the Whale, page-702

On the surface, it’s the same old scenario, the same old raise, and there’s no sign of a whale here.

Taylor Collision, a 95-year-old family brokerage firm, seem to think there’s something going on, for they’ve just onboarded their clients. (Taylor Collison was notably Joint Lead Manager for the WAM Strategic Value Ltd Initial Public Offering.)

Taylor Collision has taken a big punt here that there will be enough upcoming news flow to offload 300 million plus shares at a profit.

The downside is 33% minimum, and that’s assuming their clients could all bail at 0.2 cents – unlikely – and ironically at a price that was offered to the market only a month or so ago which struggled to attract a bid.

That’s extremely high risk for an experienced financial advisory company. It’s not like they don’t know Linius’ history.

With Bergen finally out of the way the runway is clear and based on current outflows, Linius has a comfortable 3 months (potentially 4 months plus with the $400k UK tax rebate) worth of fuel.

Inverleigh, interestingly, appears to have jumped across from the warm side of the pipeline, which could be evidence the flywheel has begun to spin.

An unexpected deal.

Yet if the flywheel were really turning, why haven’t any of 5 hot deals been signed yet let alone the whale?

They’ve got to be ripe for the picking based on the deal fruition period we’ve been informed so far (Inverleigh 3 months & A-Leagues 5 months) or it’s more of the old Linius "next quarter" spin.


Current market sentiment here is extreme bearish as if nothing has changed.

From what JB has achieved thus far in both record revenue generation and record cost cutting is a highly unusual combination for Linius.

Maybe something has changed.

Revenues are also more predictable and the margins appear very healthy too – repeatable, scalable products in 5 sports so far.

The market, nevertheless, is cautiously waiting for more evidence of clear signs of revenue growth and an obvious pathway to profitability.

More action not words and fair enough, too.

Another a few deals, however, should create a new scenario, a new belief, but we all know what it will take for Linius to take wing.

Imho